Though El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are favoured to continue through to June, there is a 61 per cent chance of drought-bearing El Niño emerging between May and July, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US has said.

In its May 4 update on ENSO status, the CPC, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US, said that from early February, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have emerged in the far-eastern equatorial Pacific. “Since mid-April 2026, near-to-above average SSTs expanded across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

This raises concerns for Asia, particularly India, as El Niño could impact the south-west monsoon rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal monsoon this year, with the rainfall being 92 per cent of the long-period average.

2023 impact

In 2023, when El Niño emerged, India received only 94 per cent of LPA rainfall, leading to drought and prolonged dry periods in over one-third of the country. It affected the production of key kharif crops such as oilseeds, pulses and paddy.

Earlier this month, the IMD said El Niño could last at least until January 2027, raising concerns over rabi sowing that begins in October. In addition, storage in major reservoirs is currently below 40 per cent of capacity.

The CPC said over the past two months, above-average subsurface temperatures strengthened in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the same time, westerly wind anomalies emerged in the eastern and east-central Pacific Ocean in mid-to-late April.

Super El Nino threat

It said the recent value of the Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) during April-February was -0.5°C, which means that La Niña continued. However, the transition to ENSO neutral has taken place.

While predicting the onset of El Niño this year, global weather agencies have warned of a super El Niño, which could be more severe.

El Niño could surpass the intensity of the 2023 event and rival the formidable episode of 2015, according to Swadhin Behera, Director of the Application Research Laboratory at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

For India and other countries in Asia, a sliver of hope is that the Indian Ocean Dipole could emerge and probably limit the impact of the drought-bearing weather.

Published on May 5, 2026