U.S. farmers this year will harvest their smallest wheat crop since 1972, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S., the Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.
This autumn, U.S. growers will also harvest their second-largest soybean crop on record, while corn production is expected to drop 6% from last year, the USDA said in its first official forecast of the 2026/27 crop season.
Rising fuel and fertilizer prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent grain production costs sharply higher, heaping further stress on the U.S. farm economy already reeling from trade disruptions caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff battles.
U.S. growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat. Winter wheat was already planted when the war began at the end of February, but soaring fertilizer costs curbed spring nutrient applications for winter wheat and spring-seeded crops like corn, soy and spring wheat.
Benchmark hard red winter wheat futures and soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rallied by their daily 45-cent-per-bushel trading limits.
The USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion in 2025/26, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains was likely to slash the hard red winter wheat crop by 25% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, expected the USDA to project a 1.735-billion-bushel all-wheat crop.
The USDA rated just 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition in a weekly crop conditions report on Monday, the lowest rating for this point in the growing season in four years.
The USDA pegged the 2026 U.S. soybean harvest at 4.435 billion bushels, up from 4.262 billion bushels last year, but below the average trade estimate of 4.445 billion.
Corn production was forecast to decline to 15.995 billion bushels from a record 17.021 billion bushels last year. The estimate was above the average analyst estimate of 15.934 billion bushels.
But soybean demand remains unclear as top importer China has slashed purchases from the U.S. amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and abundant supplies from rival exporters Brazil and Argentina.
China and the U.S. may reach a farm deal at their summit this week that expands Beijing's purchases of grains and meat, but market watchers said they did not expect major new soybean purchases beyond what was agreed in a deal last October.
The USDA projected U.S. soybean exports in the current 2025/26 season at 1.530 billion bushels and at 1.630 billion bushels in the 2026/27 season.
U.S. soybean stocks were forecast to shrink to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2026/27 marketing year, from 340 million at the end of the current season on August 31.
Corn supplies were expected to remain ample at 1.957 billion bushels at the end of the 2026/27 season, down from 2.142 billion for 2025/26.
Published on May 12, 2026