Some nations build energy security after a crisis forces their hand. India chose to build it before one arrived. As crude oil volatility and shortages returned with a vengeance in 2026, driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the disruption to global energy supply chains that followed, India finds itself indebted to its Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme. A programme conceived in January 2003, redesigned in 2018, and now delivering the kind of results that no one expected. The ethanol story has suddenly become India’s most strategically important and most vindicated initiative in its energy transition story.

The quiet beginning of 2003

The ethanol blending programme was a modest initiative launched by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, it was a modest initiative covering nine states with a 5% blending target, attracting little attention, or grabbing headlines. Even by 2014, the national blending average stood at a modest 1.53%. But the architecture had been laid feedstock by feedstock, distillery by distillery and regular policy reforms. The government had understood that energy transitions required time and patience before its full impact could be felt.

The 2018 inflection: When foresight became policy

The real transformation came in 2018, when the National Policy on Biofuels fundamentally rewrote the rules of the game. It reimagined what India’s ethanol programme could become, helped by progressive policy instruments.

Ethanol feedstocks were expanded beyond sugarcane molasses to include damaged food grains, surplus rice, maize, and agricultural residues. A masterstroke that simultaneously addressed the sugar industry’s overdependence on water-intensive cultivation and opened the grain belts of North and Central India to the ethanol economy, proving to be a boon for the farmers.

From 1.53% to 20%: A decade that rewrote the record books

There was also a massive increase in the blending programme. In 2023-14, India blended a total of 380 million litres of ethanol into petrol but had risen to 7.07 billion litres in 2023-24 — a near twenty-fold increase in a single decade. Blending reached 14.6 per cent in 2023-24, climbed to nearly 18 per cent by the end of 2024, and achieved the landmark 20 per cent target by March 2025 — five full years ahead of the original 2030 deadline.

The programme’s feedstock evolution saw the diversification from sugarcane-derived ethanol to grain-based that included surplus rice, maize, and damaged food grains, resulting in its steady increase. It changed the supply base, reduced dependence on any single agricultural cycle, and extended the economic benefits of the ethanol economy to the grain-producing states of North and Central India, which had been left largely untouched.

Surplus as strength: The strategic asset nobody expected

India’s ethanol production capacity today exceeds what E20 blending alone demands — and this surplus, is one of the programme’s most significant strategic achievements. It means that when E25, E30, or E40 targets are set and the flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) penetration increases, the supply will be ready before the demand arrives.

The road ahead: FFVs, CAFE III, and the sky above

The policy architecture for ethanol’s next chapter has already been written. The government is preparing draft rules for E85 fuel — petrol blended with 85 per cent ethanol — designed for FFV capable of running on any ethanol blend from E20 to E100. Similarly, CAFE III norms, set to take effect from April 2027, are currently under review, with the Minister of Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari calling for FFVs to receive treatment at par with electric vehicles in emission credits.

Aviation represents the most exciting new frontier. On April 17, 2026, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas formally amended aviation turbine fuel (ATF) marketing regulations, widening the definition of ATF to include blended and synthetic hydrocarbons, It not only cleared the regulatory path for Sustainable Aviation Fuel in India but also set blending targets of 1 per cent by 2027, 2 per cent by 2028, and 5 per cent by 2030,

The lesson that 2026 has made impossible to ignore

The recent war has answered with a definitive “no” to the question of whether India should wait for a bigger crisis before acting on energy security. While no domestic policy could have prevented the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the spike in commercial LPG prices to ₹2,078.50 per cylinder, the doubling of aviation turbine fuel costs, it has helped to cushion, to absorb its massive impact. It has also ensured that India’s economic resilience is not entirely hostage to decisions made in foreign capitals and contested waterways.

The foundation has been built. The capacity is ready. The feedstocks are available. The vehicles are coming. The direction is clear. What India’s ethanol programme requires now is not a new strategy. It requires the same quality of sustained, patient, deliberate commitment that built it in the first place — and the confidence to move forward with the same conviction that the crisis of 2026 has so completely vindicated.

The author is President, Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association (GEMA)

Published on May 9, 2026