There was a fleeting moment of relief when the US and Iran announced the intention to abide by a two week ceasefire pending negotiations in Islamabad. That comfort was not only felt in the Middle East but the world over, impacted as it was by major disruptions in oil and natural gas supplies with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international transportation channel.
But even before the temporary halt in hostilities, there were accusations of violations; delegations from Washington and Teheran are travelling to Pakistan for the first round of talks.
Lebanese connection
A major point of contention in this uneasy truce of sorts is Lebanon. According to Pakistan, which brokered the ceasefire, the terms of pause include Lebanon, which continues to be hammered by Israel. Iran believes that Lebanon is part of the deal, but the US and Israel do not think so. “The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
And in Hungary, Vice President JD Vance, who is heading the delegation to Pakistan, said: “If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart... over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them, and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice.”
If Lebanon continues to be a sideshow along with Hormuz, there are larger minefields along the way, if the proposals put forth by the two sides are anything to go by.
From the point of view of Iran, its nuclear programme is non-negotiable, all American forces should move out of the Middle East, war reparations are a must, and all sanctions dating back to 1979 should be lifted. Without commenting on the merits of the broad issues, President Donald Trump has said that Teheran’s list is “workable”.
Lifting of sanctions, including those imposed by the United Nations and Europe, may not be a major problem; and war reparations could be re-phrased reconstruction assistance, which will also include participation of major international financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But Iran’s demand that it be allowed to continue with its nuclear programme or be left with some 400 kg of uranium, the original premise for the start of the conflict, will be hard to concede.
Politically, it will be difficult for Trump to allow uranium to be left back in Iran. Otherwise, how will he rationalise the billions spent so far and an additional $200 billion request in funding?
The news of the ceasefire had its expected impact on oil prices, which fell to around $80 a barrel, and on stock markets in the US, Europe and Asia, which buoyed following the reprieve. But the situation could flare up again (oil prices rose on Thursday) if the talks end in an impasse over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Restarting of war
There is bound to be unease in Tel Aviv even if the so-called peaceful nuclear programme of Iran meets the tightest of tight safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The 10 proposals floated by Iran may all be “workable”, but Israel will have its veto on Iran’s nuclear programme.
If the last 39 days are anything to go by, a fresh start to the war is something no one wants. But apparently the principals seem ready for it. “… we are prepared to start in a moment’s notice,” said US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. To which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said, “We are with our hand on the trigger, ready to respond to any attack with more force.”
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations
Published on April 10, 2026