If you were an Islamic country in West Asia, and a Sunni one to boot, and needed protection from a ruthless Shia country, not to mention Israel which is a cousin bent on obliterating the Shia country, who would you turn to, now that Donald Trump has created permanent mistrust between the US and you?
Who is most likely to replace America as the guarantor of peace and stability of the region? That is, who will ensure that the current despots continue and aren’t replaced by other despots that make West Asia a haven for business?
History suggests that two things are needed to become such a guarantor: lots of money and lots of muscle. The two together constitute the necessary and sufficient conditions because money without muscle leaves you effete like Western Europe and muscle without money leaves you bumbling like Russia.
The one country that has both, though not in abundance, is China. But that’s not why it could take America’s place in West Asia. The simple fact is that continuing stability is an absolute must for the Communist Party of China. An unstable world means bye-bye CCP because its continuing rule of China is predicated on the model of jobs for the masses. Absolutely nothing else matters.
For this it needs oil from West Asia and will therefore be quite willing to make whatever short or medium term concessions as are needed. Remember how it fooled the world with its promises to get admitted to the WTO? Deceit is not deceit in the CCP’s lexicon. It’s wisdom.
Camel and Arab
As an aside, I’d say that the situation is analogous to the one that the merchants of Surat found themselves in back in the 18th century when they needed law and order to ensure peaceful trading. They asked the East India Company to provide it. Again, for those merchants, stability and peace were absolutely necessary for prosperity.
The Company readily provided the guns and the men, for which the Surat merchants paid. Over the next 50 years it started ruling random bits of India, and over the next 100 years, most of it. But it stabbed Surat in the back by shifting its main base to Bombay.
It will not take China that long to replace the US. A decade will be enough. So, in all probability, Donald Trump’s legacy will be the gift of West Asia to China. Taiwan will then voluntarily seek ‘Anschluss’, German for voluntary union.
Remember: it was China that mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Remember, it’s China that’s helping Iran now. Remember, it’s China that is telling Israel that Iran won’t go nuclear. It’s sab ka saath, sab ka vikaas, for which peace and stability are crucial.
China has the great advantage that it is a newcomer to the region. Nor is it one of the three main Abrahamic faiths that base their faith on the Torah, the Bible and the Koran respectively.
This is vitally important because the Jews, Christians and Muslims have been fighting each other since AD 624. That is for just over 2000 years.
Indeed, along with money and muscle, China not belonging to an Abrahamic faith is the third attribute it enjoys. Its role will not invoke any historical memories, grievances and hatreds. It is neutral in every way and its policies will be driven purely by need, just as British colonial policies were.
Why, China has an advantage in West Asia even in distance, both physical and psychological. It’s as detached from West Asia as Britain was from India in the 17th century.
What of India, then?
Just as China can’t compete with India on democratic governance values and systems, India can’t compete with China on either money or muscle. This is a fact of life.
Also, India is driven by entirely different political and sociological impulses. Besides, its proximity to West Asia means that it has a historical involvement with the people there at a level far deeper than China can ever have. This involvement makes neutrality impossible.
Many people are lamenting India’s growing irrelevance in the region and China’s growing relevance. But this is a very silly way of looking at things because it confuses manifest need with inchoate desire. China understands this. We don’t.
Like China India needs West Asian oil and gas, and it makes absolutely no difference who makes access to it possible. It was the British before 1945, the Americans after that or China in the coming years.
Or, if I may use the Hindi saying which goes, “aam khana hai, guthli nahin ginna hai” (we have to eat the mangoes, not count the kernels).
Published on April 6, 2026