The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite witnessed a strong bounce back last week. This has given some relief after having beaten down for five consecutive weeks. The Dow Jones rose 2.96 per cent. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index were up 3.36 per cent and 4.44 per cent respectively. Will this bounce sustain? Is this just a corrective rise before the next leg of fall? Here is an analysis.
Near-term resistances are at 46,700 and 47,050. If the Dow manages to breach 47,050 decisively, it can gain some more strength. That in turn can take the index further up to 48,000-48,300 in the next few weeks. The price action thereafter is going to be very crucial. Failure to rise past 48,300 can drag the index down to 45,000 again. A strong follow-through rise above 48,300 is needed to bring back the bullishness. Only then, 50,000 and higher levels can be seen again.
On the other hand, if the Dow turns down from 47,050 itself, then there is a danger of breaking below the 45,000-44,900 support zone. Such a break can drag it down to 44,000.
The rise back above 6,470 has reduced the danger of seeing the fall to 6,200 immediately. However, the threat has not been negated completely. The region between 6,470-6,440 will be a good immediate support.
Resistance is at 6,645. A break above it can take the S&P 500 index up to 6,750. An extended rise to 6,800 is also a possibility. A strong rise above 6,800 is needed to turn the outlook bullish again.
A reversal anywhere from the 6,750-6,800 region will keep bearish view intact. It can then take the index down to 6,450-6,400 again. An eventual break below 6,400 thereafter will bring back the danger of seeing 6,200-6,180 on the downside.
Key resistances are coming up in the 22,000-22,150 region which can cap the upside. A downward reversal from this resistance zone can drag the NASDAQ Composite index down to 21,000-20,900 again. It will also keep the broader downtrend intact.
That in turn will keep the downside open to see 20,500-20,300 or even 19,900-19,700 over the medium term.
To avoid this fall, NASDAQ Composite index has to see a sustained rise above 22,500.
The dollar index (100.19) continues to oscillate in a range. There is no major change in our view.
The region between 99 and 98.50 will be a strong support zone. A rise to 101-101.20 is still on the cards. The index is likely to breach 101.20 eventually. That in turn will open the doors for a rise to 103-104 over the medium term.
Failure to breach 101.20 can drag the index down to 100-99 again. In that case, 98.50-101.20 can be the broad trading range.
A fall below 98.50 is needed to turn the outlook negative.
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.31 per cent) fell last week. However, the support in the 4.28-4.25 per cent region is holding well. As long as the yield stays above 4.25 per cent, the bias will remain positive. That will keep our bullish view intact to see 4.6 per cent on the upside in the coming weeks. A decisive break above 4.45 per cent will clear the way for this rise.
The 10Yr Yield has to fall below 4.2 per cent to come under pressure. If that happens, a fall to 4 per cent is possible. That in turn will negate the rise to 4.6 per cent.
Published on April 4, 2026
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