Natural gas futures has been on a downtrend since mid-March. Last week, the May futures marked a low of ₹248.20 (per mmBtu) and has now recovered to ₹269.

As it stands, there are no strong signs of a bullish reversal. Although the price is now above the 21-day moving average and the contract has inched above a trendline resistance, both at ₹265, to build a sustainable rally, natural gas futures ought to surpass the barrier at ₹275.

Until the resistance at ₹275 holds, the bias will remain bearish. There is a good chance for the contract to resume the downtrend and slip to ₹235 in the short-term.

On the other hand, if natural gas futures rise above the resistance at ₹275, the near-term outlook will turn positive. In such a case, the contract can rally to ₹300. Subsequent resistance is at ₹310.

Nevertheless, as the resistance at ₹275 is valid now, the likelihood of a decline is high. 

Trade strategy

Last week, we suggested going short on natural gas futures (May) at ₹265. Retain this trade and maintain stop-loss at ₹280. When the contract slips to ₹245, revise the stop-loss to ₹255. Book profits at ₹235.

Published on May 4, 2026