Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index surged last week. The US-Iran war ceasefire announcement triggered the sharp rise in the Indian benchmark indices. Sensex and Nifty were up 5.8 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively. Nifty Bank index on the other hand surged about 8.5 per cent.
Two key observations on the recent market movement strengthens the bullish case. Firstly, before the ceasefire announcement for three consecutive trading days, every dip was bought. After the ceasefire announcement, the benchmark indices opened with a huge gap-up and was able to sustain higher for the rest of the week. These two factors indicate that fresh buyers are beginning to come into the market. That keeps the bias positive and leaves the door open for the indices to rise more in the coming weeks.
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to sell the Indian equities for the sixth consecutive week. They pulled out about $3.05 billion from the equity segment last week. The net outflow for the month of April now stands at $5.14 billion.
Video Credit: Businessline
Short-term view: The outlook is positive. But an intermediate dip is a possibility before a further rise is seen. Nifty has supports at 23,700 and 23,500 which can limit the downside in the short term.
Resistance is around 24,500 which can be tested in the near term. A break above it can take the Nifty higher to 24,900-25,000 and even 25,500 in the coming weeks.
A fall below 23,500 is needed to drag the index down to 23,000 or lower. But that looks less likely.
Medium-term view: The rise to 24,000 has happened much faster than expected. That keeps the door open for the Nifty to see 26,500 in the medium term.
A decisive break above 26,500 will boost the bullish momentum. Such a break will then strengthen the case for a rally to 28,000 and 30,000 in the long term.
In case the index turns down from around 26,500, then the broader range will remain intact. In that case, a fall back to 24,000 and 22,000 again cannot be ruled out.
Short-term view: Immediate resistance is around 56,500. Failure to breach this hurdle can drag the index down to 53,900 or 53,600 in the near term. But a fall beyond 53,600 is less likely for now.
So, eventually, the Nifty Bank index can break above 56,500 and rise to 58,000 and 60,000 going forward.
The index will come under pressure for a fall to 52,000 and lower only if it breaks below 53,600.
Medium-term view: The rise above 54,000 has given some relief. The region between 60,000 and 60,500 will be a crucial resistance. A strong weekly close above 60,500 can take the Nifty Bank index higher to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term. It will also keep the upside open to see 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
Short-term view: Immediate resistance is around 77,700. A break above it can take the Sensex up to 78,800 in the near term. That will keep the bias positive for the index to see 80,000 and even 82,000 in the short term.
Key support for the week will be at 76,000. A fall to 75,000 will come into the picture only if the Sensex breaks below 76,000. However, a fall beyond 75,000 is less likely as fresh buyers can come into the market and limit the downside.
Medium-term view: Broadly, the bias remains positive. The region around 83,000 will be a key resistance. A break above it can take the Sensex up to 86,000 in the medium term. A further break above 86,000 will see the upside extending to 90,000 as well. That in turn will also clear the way for the Sensex to rally towards 98,000 in the long term.
Failure to breach 86,000 and a reversal thereafter can drag the index down to 84,000-83,000 and even lower again.
The strong rise and close above 21,000 strengthens the bullish case. Support will now be in the 20,800-20,750 region. Resistance is in the 21,600-21,650 region which can be tested in the near term. Failure to breach 21,650 on its first test can trigger a corrective dip to 21,200-21,100. But this will be short-lived and the index can rise back again.
An eventual break above 21,650 can then take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 22,700-23,000 over the medium term.
A sustained break above 23,000 will be bullish from a long-term perspective. That will then trigger a fresh rally to 26,000-26,500 initially, and then, to 28,000-28,500 eventually.
The price action around 23,000 will be crucial.
The rise to 16,000 is happening in line with our expectation. That keeps intact our broader bullish view. Cluster of resistances are there in the 16,000-16,500 region. Failure to break 16,500 can trigger a short-lived corrective fall to 15,500 or even 15,000. However, the bias will continue to remain positive.
As such we can expect the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to breach 16,500 eventually. Such a break can take the index higher to 17,700-18,000 in the medium term.
A decisive break above 18,000 will then boost the bullish momentum. Such a break will see the Nifty Smallcap 250 index rallying to 22,500-23,000 in the long term.
As we have been mentioning in this column for some time, this will be a very good time to enter the smallcap segment. Investors with a time frame of two years can buy now and also accumulate on dips. They may have to have a stop-loss below 14,000.
Published on April 11, 2026
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