Last year, Summer stocks cooled because Summer itself failed to arrive on time. Unseasonal rainfall, and early weather disruptions spoiled the usually ‘hot’ demand window for air-conditioners, fans, coolers, cold drinks and amusement parks. While there has been broader market volatility this year due to the war in West Asia, last year too, there was volatility due to Operation Sindoor. But looking at the broad divergence within the Summer stocks analysed, there are winners and losers.

Summer indeed picked up clearly after April 13, 2026, across India. As the last of the cool Western Disturbances faded, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that unbroken sunshine and clear skies pushed temperatures in central, north and peninsular regions into the low 40s. The heat has returned, at least according to many management commentaries.

For the uninitiated, Summer is critical because it creates a heavy seasonal concentration of revenue for some firms, where peak volumes during Q1 (April-June) drive full-year performance. In some cases, this quarter accounts for 30-40 per cent of annual turnover.

This year, several companies say demand picked up from mid-April. Some have spoken of heatwaves, strong offtake, better trade pull and a weak base from last year. Yet, a large majority of Summer-linked stocks have again gone cold.

In the roughly two-month period — April 13 to June 12 period this year, the 18-member Summer stock basket fell about 2 per cent on an average, which is not bad given the volatility in markets. But the dispersion within this club has been wide (see table). Out of the 18 stocks analysed, 61 per cent or 11 names reported declines in this period. Benchmarks such as Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumption are up 2.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively in the same period. The broader market benchmark Nifty 50 has corrected 0.9 per cent in this period.

The worst of the market heat was felt by those connected to cooling, appliance and amusement park names. Shares of Wonderla Holidays fell 11.3 per cent, Havells India and Symphony dipped over 9 per cent each and Blue Star inched down 8.5 per cent. Epack Durable, which specialises in design and manufacturing of large domestic appliances such as ACs and coolers, fell 4.4 per cent. Voltage stabiliser maker V-Guard Industries, an essential derivative play on all white goods sales, slipped 4.7 per cent, as did Whirlpool of India (down 6.3 per cent) and Voltas (down 5.6 per cent).

The pain was also seen in some discretionary plays. FMCG major Emami fell around 7.8 per cent, and United Breweries tanked 7.4 per cent.

That split is important. Because this was not a straight sell-off in everything linked to Summer. Varun Beverages gained over 21 per cent and Dixon Technologies gained around 10 per cent.

The contrast with 2025 lies in the commentary. Last year, companies were clearly battling a delayed Summer. This year, many managements sound more hopeful as per their latest Q4FY26 concalls. Amber Enterprises said heat was already very high in the North and demand was good. Against a weak base last year, it said the room AC industry expected around 20 per cent growth in Q1. It also said that after April 12, positive offtake was seen because of heatwaves in the South, West and North.

Blue Star described the ongoing period as a great Summer season, though not like 2024. But its commentary also captured the market’s worry. The company said it needed another eight weeks of Summer to manage huge inventory in the trade and inventory build-up.

Epack Durable, too, had built inventory in anticipation of a strong Summer. It said April onwards, especially from mid-April, tailwinds had been very strong and inventory pain of the past 12 months had eased. Symphony said channel caution lasted until March 31 because of inventory overhang and the bad Summer of 2025, but South, West and parts of Central India saw decent April performance. Voltas said April and May had shown positive traction due to heatwaves, though intermittent rains continued in some regions.

The beverages side appears warmer. Varun Beverages said Summer looked very good, trends were positive and consumption was strong compared with last year’s terrible rain-hit base. It cited strong growth in dairy, Nimbooz, Tropicana PET and energy drinks. That fits the stock’s positive performance.

Dabur management noted that while a severe El Niño Summer would drive double-digit growth in beverages and glucose, they are seeing unseasonal thunderstorms on the ground in key North Indian markets. However, even if an acute Summer fails to materialise, a low base ensures the company will still perform better than last year.

But Emami shows why the weather trade remains risky. The company said Q4FY26 was hit by the delayed Summer, inconsistent temperatures and unseasonal rainfall. Its Summer portfolio declined 22 per cent, with talcum powders alone falling 40 per cent. Voltas also explained that commercial refrigeration, including deep freezers and visi coolers, is directly linked to heat intensity because ice-cream and beverage demand drives buying. In contrast, commercial air-conditioning is a B2B business and not linked in the same way to Summer intensity.

Valuations matter

So, why did a whole host of stocks cool despite warmer commentary? Valuations may be the answer. Bloomberg-derived estimates show that FY26 remains weak or uneven for many of these names, while FY27 assumes a strong rebound. Across 18 companies, average FY26 revenue growth year on year is just about 4.3 per cent. FY26-adjusted net profit growth is a mere 6.2 per cent, slower than the 8.1 per cent for FY25. Yet, average FY26 Price to Earnings (P/E) is about 53.4 times.

FY27 looks much better on paper. Average revenue growth is estimated about 18.7 per cent. Average FY27 profit growth is projected about 7.4 per cent, around 120 bps more than FY26.

But that is exactly the point. The recovery is already priced in for many counters. Voltas trades at 93.2xFY26 P/E (FY27 P/E 52.4x), Amber at 91.7x (60.8x), Dixon at 73.6x (64.1x), Blue Star at 60.4x (47.9x) and Aditya Vision at 58.5x (43.5x). Many stocks are not cheap versus their own history. Emami and Havells look relatively better on this yardstick, while Varun Beverages is closer to its historical five-year valuation band.

So, the weather has turned hot, companies are talking up demand, but the market is asking a tougher question: Will a few strong weeks be enough to clear inventory, protect margins and justify peak-Summer valuations?

For investors, the lesson is unchanged. Seasonality can sell a story. Earnings have to prove it.

Published on June 13, 2026