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Writing - Toby Ord

Broad Timelines — Toby Ord Hazard Rates for AI Agents Decline as a Task Goes On — Toby Ord Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially? — Toby Ord How Well Does RL Scale? — Toby Ord Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling — Toby Ord The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models — Toby Ord Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents? — Toby Ord Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance — Toby Ord The Scaling Paradox — Toby Ord The Precipice Revisited — Toby Ord On the Value of Advancing Progress — Toby Ord Robust Longterm Comparisons — Toby Ord The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk — Toby Ord A Child's Plaything — Toby Ord Remembering Peter Eckersley — Toby Ord Casting the Decisive Vote — Toby Ord
Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart — Toby Ord
January 21, 2025Toby Ord · 2025-01-21 · via Writing - Toby Ord
Improving model performance by scaling up inference compute is the next big thing in frontier AI. But the cha…