The 42
STEVE CLARKE’S SCOTLAND face an anxious wait to see if their World Cup journey will continue after Wednesday night’s 3-0 defeat vs Brazil.
The Scots had guaranteed third place in Group C after a 1-0 win against Haiti and a 1-0 defeat vs Morocco, but now have a goal difference of -3 and must wait to see if they finish the group stages as one of the eight best third-placed teams.
Essentially, Scotland can only afford to drop one ranking in the standings.
For Scotland to progress, four of the 12 third placed sides must have a worse record (either with fewer than three points, or with three points but a worse goal difference.)
Goals scored, team conduct score, and Fifa world rankings will be called upon if necessary.
So what will the Tartan Army be hoping for?
In Group D, Paraguay and Australia are both on three points with a goal difference of one, and play each other in the early hours of Friday morning. Scotland would need a heavy defeat for one side to have a chance of finishing above them.
In Group E, things look a bit rosier. If Ecuador can’t pull off a shock victory over Germany and Curacao fail to beat Ivory Coast, Scotland will stay ahead of the third-placed side there.
In Group F, Netherlands, Japan and Sweden are all in the mix for third. Of the three, just Sweden could possibly finish below Scotland in the rankings. However, Sweden currently have a goal difference of 0, and would need a heavy defeat to Japan to fall below the Scots.
Belgium sit in third in Group G but would be fancied to beat New Zealand and possibly overtake second-placed Iran who face Egypt. Iran already have two points, so defeat in their final group game against Egypt could be crucial to Scotland’s survival.
Pico Lopes’ Cape Verde are third in Group H and face Saudi Arabia in a crucial tie. A win for either side would put them a point clear of Scotland. However, Uruguay also have two points and face Spain. Defeat for Uruguay would mean Scotland finish above another team.
In Group I, two pointless sides, Senegal and Iraq, meet in their last game. Like Scotland, Senegal have a -3 goal difference, while Iraq are on -6, so a draw or a narrow Iraq win would be Scotland’s best bet.
Algeria and Austria meet in the final game of Group J, and Scotland will likely hope for an Austria win, here, but it would have to be by two goals to give them a chance.
In Group K, Congo DR will move ahead of Scotland if they defeat Uzbekistan.
Finally, in Group L, Scotland would require a win by three goals or more for Ghana when they play Croatia.
Written by Gareth Lyons and originally published on The 42 whose award-winning team produces original content that you won’t find anywhere else: on GAA, League of Ireland, women’s sport and boxing, as well as our game-changing rugby coverage, all with an Irish eye. Subscribe here.