The Irish Examiner has conducted a detailed sample of the party over the past week, speaking to 51 of the 70 members of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, excluding Mr Martin himself, which reveals that 59% (30 respondents) want to see a change of leadership immediately after the EU presidency.

Early contenders for FF leadership

Mr O’Callaghan, the justice minister, is currently the most favoured member of the party, with 14 saying they would back him in a leadership contest, followed by Mr Calleary, the social protection minister, who has seven politicians happy to state they would support him.

The remaining 30 would not provide a single name, but many offered up an opinion on who they think will feature alongside the two frontrunners in any leadership battle.

These include Jack Chambers, Darragh O’Brien, James Lawless, Norma Foley, and Mary Butler.

“Everyone is going to be guided by the public, and if you look at the polls, it seems Jim is way out ahead,” said one minister of state, citing a recent survey which ranked the justice minister as the most popular member of Cabinet on 22%.

Another TD talking up Mr O’Callaghan described the ministerial ratings as “very accurate”. One TD said: 

Jim O’Callaghan is quite aloof, but very bright, and people like to think he has star quality.

Another long-serving member described him as having a “presence both intellectually and physically”.

Calleary 'a safe pair of hands'

However, in recent times, Mr Calleary, deemed a “safe pair of hands”, has been making moves, and stated on radio that he has been asked by “loads of people” to stand for the leadership.

“Dara will do the dog work of meeting people and traipsing around the country, engaging with people, with the grannies, with the babies, and the man at the gate.

O'Callaghan 'burnt' by presidential campaign

“Is Jim able for that? Has Jim got the interest for that? That’s my only fear with Jim,” said one politician who has served multiple terms.

Another member said Mr O'Callaghan had been “burnt” by coming out early to back failed presidential candidate Jim Gavin and would not be making the same mistake again.

“They have to lay out what they are offering,” said one senior TD, adding: “I want a shake-up of Mount Street [Fianna Fáil’s HQ], I want change, I don’t simply want a moving of tables or chairs.”

'Martin should lead FF into next election'

While the majority of parliamentary party members surveyed have set the end of the year as a leadership deadline, just two members were emphatic in their belief that Mr Martin should guide Fianna Fáil into the next general election, as he has continuously stated as being his intention.

One member suggested he should stay on until after the local and European elections, which are scheduled for 2029.

Four among the ministerial ranks avoided a direct response, stating that there is no vacancy, or that they are focusing on their department work. However, several ministers did say that Mr Martin should go to allow for a leadership contest in early 2027.

The remaining 21 politicians provided a range of non-committal answers, stating they either do not know when Mr Martin should stand down, or that they are willing to leave the decision to the Taoiseach.

Heave against Micheál Martin 

A growing number of those who want Mr Martin to exit at the end of the year are willing to see this happen through a heave. One long-serving TD said: "If he drives on after Christmas, someone is going to stand up against him." 

This was echoed by another member of the parliamentary party, who said: “He’s safe for the presidency. After that, you don’t know what’s going to happen.

“I don’t think he’s going to survive after that.”

• Elaine Loughlin, Political Editor