The study expressed concern that the rate of housing development being permitted across Ireland in areas prone to flooding has accelerated, and warned that homes at risk of flooding are devalued on the property market.

The study, entitled Climate Resilient Places, was commissioned to improve understanding of future risks related to climate change at a highly local level in Ireland, particularly in relation to flood hazards.

EPA: Cork flood costs could rise tenfold

The annual current cost of flooding in Cork is calculated at €18m, but the report said the predicted 10-fold increase to €187m “underscores the urgent need for adaptive policy measures to protect lives, infrastructure, and the economy”.

It added: “Myopic investments and planning decisions today increase exposure to, and ultimately costs associated with, flooding in the future.”

It also noted that the modelling predicted that climate-induced flooding was likely to impact areas previously deemed low-risk, thereby expanding the city’s floodplain.

Previously unaffected areas at risk

Researchers noted that almost two thirds of the estimated increase in damage costs related to locations that are currently not expected to flood even in a one-in-100-year event.

The study said very large increases in damage costs from flooding would arise from both high-frequency minor flood events and rarer, “more extreme” major flood events.

It acknowledged that any flooding in Cork City, which up to now tended to be concentrated in the central business district, will result in far greater damage and related costs to commercial buildings than residential properties.

The report also stated that the estimated €187m cost of flooding in Cork City in 2050 included over €110m of damage to commercial properties.

However, the report said future flooding is also likely to result in additional costs in the form of intangible losses from disruption to people’s lives, stress, anxiety, and illness.

It estimated such intangible costs by 2050 at €30m, while the cost for utility companies would be almost €24m, and for emergency services would be just under €10m.

'€68m damage to properties previously deemed safe'

Researchers claim their findings indicated that €68m of damage in 2050 will be related to buildings in Cork City not currently deemed to be at risk from flooding, while only €38m will be accounted for by properties already at risk.

However, the study said its findings showed that the pursuit of compact urban development, such as in Cork City, could come at the cost of further development in areas at risk of flooding.

New housing in flood risk zones

It revealed that 10,000 housing units were granted planning permission across the Republic between 2016 and 2022 in flood-risk zones, including 4,000 in medium-risk locations.

Researchers said that their findings indicated that in cities and satellite urban towns, flood risk was not a significant determinant of the likelihood of a planning application being rejected.

“The analysis lays bare the consequences of unabated climate change at the very local level,” they added.

The study said policymakers will be faced with increasingly stark choices between funding large-scale flood defence investments or paying enormous bills for recovery assistance in the aftermath of each new flood event.

“Ultimately, the intensification of risk will result in higher costs to the public purse,” it stated.

It said that its findings also indicated the engagement of the public about the concept of building climate-resilient places and communities was still in its infancy in Ireland.