Markets in the Middle East will be affected first and worst
The war against Iran is causing an air and shipping jam, but it will likely have little effect on the global technology market unless the conflict widens significantly, according to analysts.
“UAE is a major distribution hub for many products, including tech, in the region and since both airspace and likely port traffic are closed [or] limited, the local markets may face issues,” Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC, told The Register. “But globally these represent a small portion of the market.”
Bombing raids by the US and Israel and Iran's retaliatory strikes have shut down critical logistics hubs for sea cargo and air traffic throughout the Middle East. US President Trump has said the dispute could last four to five weeks.
The ongoing attacks and counterattacks have left more than 500 people, including six US servicemembers, dead. As the grim ledger for the conflict builds, global shippers are carefully guarding their fleets and ports to protect workers and cargo from further collateral damage.
The Jebel Ali shipping terminal in Dubai was hit by debris from an intercepted missile that sparked a fire, and a dockworker was killed by incoming projectiles at a shipyard in Bahrain, which also injured two.
The International Maritime Organization’s secretary general Arsenio Dominguez condemned the violence, and urged all shipping companies to exercise maximum caution, and “avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve.”
"I am deeply concerned by reports of at least one fatality and several seafarers injured in attacks on merchant vessels,” he wrote in a statement posted to the group’s web page. “No attack on innocent seafarers or civilian shipping is ever justified. These crews are simply doing their jobs and must be protected from the effects of wider geopolitical tensions.”
Several shipping companies have suspended or rerouted cargo travel in the region after the start of the bombing campaign and since Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply chain and shipping optimizer Flexport said that, by sea, expect transit times between Asia and Europe, and on certain Asia–U.S. East Coast lanes, to increase by 10 to 14 days as vessels detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
While IDC noted that most travel through those waters is related to oil and natural gas, one report says at least 150 ships were trapped after Iran’s warning was issued.
Maersk said it was suspending all new ocean bookings between the Indian subcontinent – India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka – and the Upper Gulf markets of UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait, as well as Dammam and Jubail in Saudi Arabia.
“Due to the deteriorating security situation,” the shipper also paused future Trans Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and said “all sailings on the ME11 (Middle East-India to Mediterranean) and MECL (Middle East-India to East Coast US) services will be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope” until further notice.
Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said that ships already in the region will be redirected to safe waters until further notice. No safe ports have yet been identified.
It also introduced a “war risk surcharge” of $1,500 per (twenty foot equivalent container), and $3,500 for special cargo which applies to “any booking issued on or after March 2, 2026, for all bookings already issued but which have not yet shipped, as well as to cargo already on the water but not yet discharged or loaded to/from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia – Dammam and Jubail.”
Soon after the bombs, missiles, and suicide drones began falling, air routes across the region were also closed.
Flexport said that air carriers in the region represent 13.6% of global capacity. They are unable to operate the majority of their flights and those operations will be disrupted beyond the trade between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
“With airspace inaccessible and safety risks elevated, most shipments originating in, destined for, or transiting through the Middle East are being grounded or diverted,” the company stated.
FedEx has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, until further notice.
Other air cargo companies announced suspended flights or disrupted operations throughout the region including Emirates Sky Cargo, Cathay Group, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, Oman Air Cargo. ®
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