Analyst bets smart money on 'proactive digital companion' upgrade cycle
Generative AI will supposedly spark a smartphone renaissance, driving both unit shipments and the value of devices sold this calendar year – or so claims a rather optimistic forecast from Gartner's consultants.
The analyst firm reckons phones packing neural processing units (NPUs) will shift 369 million units in 2025, generating an estimated $298 billion in end-user spending. That's quite the punt on punters actually wanting AI in their pocket.
"Currently, most users still rely on text or touch for all tasks, and voice interactions remain limited in scope," said senior director analyst Ranjit Atwal. "However, as conversational AI becomes more natural in the future, users are expected to become more comfortable with AI as a proactive digital companion, rather than just a reactive tool."
The forecast covers premium smartphones and basic models, which won't be getting NPU capabilities – the silicon needed to run large language models locally – anytime soon.
"The broad use of new NPUs in smartphones will allow GenAI models to run faster and more efficiently, requiring users to upgrade to the latest smartphone hardware for optimized experiences," said Atwal.
"In 2025, Gartner forecasts almost all premium GenAI smartphones will include NPUs and 41 percent of basic GenAI smartphones will have NPUs."
If the sales projection is correct, and that's a hefty if, the industry would see a proper rebound after several lean years. Smartphones became a growth sector again in 2024, expanding to 1.238 billion units, up 6.4 percent year-on-year. However, growth has been more modest this year, with Q1 up just 1.5 percent and Q2 managing only 1 percent.
Gartner seems more bullish on AI smartphones than AI PCs, where Atwal previously warned that higher prices and a lack of killer apps would deter some buyers. That prediction proved prescient. Even with Windows 10 support ending, some businesses opted to buy extended security updates rather than refresh their fleets.
Dell COO Jeff Clarke recently noted "moderate growth as the PC refresh continues, driven by an aging installed base and the Windows 10 end of life." This doesn't sound like customers are itching to replace PC kit.
As for phones, users are clinging to their devices longer, seeing little reason to upgrade. The Register suspects many readers won't be sufficiently moved by the prospect of generative AI to shell out for a new "smartblower" with an NPU.
The secondhand market is thriving, with refurbished device availability being one of the few limiting factors.
Atwal told us he thinks AI smartphones will fare better. "NPUs have been in smartphones since 2019, they just have not been able to leverage them for 'real AI' use," he said.
"So smartphones are more mature and able to leverage AI, compared to NPUs in AI PCs, which need to develop a new ecosystem."
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