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Our World in Data - Data Insights

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Thailand’s population may have already peaked
Hannah Ritchie, Edouard Mathieu, Lucas Rodés-Guirao · 2026-08-22 · via Our World in Data - Data Insights
Line chart of Thailand's population from 1950 to 2100 where UN estimates show a rise to a peak around 2020 to 2025 at about 70 million, followed by a projected decline through 2100. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024). License: CC BY.

Many countries are in a fairly unique demographic position in history: their populations are shrinking not due to a temporary shock but to sustained structural decline.

If we look at the United Nations’ population estimates and medium projections, 66 countries and territories had already passed peak population this year. Almost all of them are in Europe and East Asia.

But there is one country in Southeast Asia in this position: Thailand. As you can see in the chart, the UN projects that its population will continue to fall throughout this century.

This is the result of a rapid drop in fertility rates. In 1970, women in Thailand had an average of 6 children; twenty years later, that had fallen to 2. This was as fast as China’s decline. Today, the rate is at most 1.2 children per woman, and some national statistics put it closer to 1.

What makes Thailand unusual is that this happened while it was still a relatively poor country. In 1970, it launched its National Family Planning Program. This was voluntary and non-coercive, but effectively increased contraceptive use, family planning access, and education levels for women.

Explore which other countries may have already peaked

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