Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) alert drivers during safety-critical scenarios but often provide superfluous alerts due to a lack of consideration for drivers' knowledge or scene awareness. Modeling these aspects together in a data-driven way is challenging due to the scarcity of critical scenario data with in-cabin driver state and world state recorded together. We explore the benefits of driver modeling in the context of Forward Collision Warning (FCW) systems. Working with real-world video dataset of on-road FCW deployments, we collect observers' subjective validity rating of the deployed alerts. We also annotate participants' gaze-to-objects and extract 3D trajectories of the ego vehicle and other vehicles semi-automatically. We generate a risk estimate of the scene and the drivers' perception in a two step process: First, we model the movement of vehicles in a given scenario as a joint trajectory forecasting problem. Then, we reason about the drivers' risk perception of the scene by counterfactually modifying the input to the forecasting model to represent the drivers' actual observations of vehicles in the scene. The difference in these behaviours gives us an estimate of driver behaviour that accounts for their actual (inattentive) observations and their downstream effect on overall scene risk. We compare both a learned scene representation as well as a more traditional ``worse-case'' deceleration model to achieve the future trajectory forecast. Our experiments show that using this risk formulation to generate FCW alerts may lead to improved false positive rate of FCWs and improved FCW timing.