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cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting Algorithms with Polynomially-Improved Approximation Factors for the $2 \rightarrow q$ Norm, and Applications A computational phase transition for learning-to-sample from Ising models Covering vertices by sequential stars Fermi-Dirac machines as quantizations of neurons A Comprehensive Evaluation of Vertex Elimination Algorithms for Algorithmic Differentiation A Tight Bound on Localization of Electrical Flows Optimal Dimension-Free Sampling for Regularized Classification Reducing the Randomness in Partition Oracles for Bounded Degree Minor-Free Graphs Beyond the Half-Approximation: Fair and Efficient Online Class Matching Efficient Uniform Sampling of Surjections via their Profiles Tractable Maximization of Budgeted Phylogenetic Diversity on Networks Utilizing Node Scanwidth Fairness in Aggregation: Optimal Top-$k$ and Improved Full Ranking Learning-Augmented Online Scheduling with Parsimonious Preemption Entropy Equivalence Testing Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor Polynomial-Time Robust Multiclass Linear Classification under Gaussian Marginals Efficient Banzhaf-Based Data Valuation for $k$-Nearest Neighbors Classification Block-Sphere Vector Quantization An Approximation Algorithm for Graph Label Selection Iterative Chow Filtering for Learning with Distribution Shift Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries Fast and Compact Graph Cuts for the Boykov-Kolmogorov Algorithm A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling
A Theory of Selective Prediction
Mingda Qiao, Gregory Valiant · 2019-02-12 · via cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to make the prediction as well as the length of the prediction window, possibly depending on the observations so far. We prove that, even without any distributional assumption on the input data stream, a large family of statistics can be estimated to non-trivial accuracy. To give one concrete example, suppose that we are given access to an arbitrary binary sequence $x_1, \ldots, x_n$ of length $n$. Our goal is to accurately predict the average observation, and we are allowed to choose the window over which the prediction is made: for some $t < n$ and $m \le n - t$, after seeing $t$ observations we predict the average of $x_{t+1}, \ldots, x_{t+m}$. This particular problem was first studied in Drucker (2013) and referred to as the "density prediction game". We show that the expected squared error of our prediction can be bounded by $O(\frac{1}{\log n})$ and prove a matching lower bound, which resolves an open question raised in Drucker (2013). This result holds for any sequence (that is not adaptive to when the prediction is made, or the predicted value), and the expectation of the error is with respect to the randomness of the prediction algorithm. Our results apply to more general statistics of a sequence of observations, and we highlight several open directions for future work.