For even $k$, the matchings connectivity matrix $\mathbf{M}_k$ encodes which pairs of perfect matchings on $k$ vertices form a single cycle. Cygan et al. (STOC 2013) showed that the rank of $\mathbf{M}_k$ over $\mathbb{Z}_2$ is $Θ(\sqrt 2^k)$ and used this to give an $O^*((2+\sqrt{2})^{\mathsf{pw}})$ time algorithm for counting Hamiltonian cycles modulo $2$ on graphs of pathwidth $\mathsf{pw}$. The same authors complemented their algorithm by an essentially tight lower bound under the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH). This bound crucially relied on a large permutation submatrix within $\mathbf{M}_k$, which enabled a "pattern propagation" commonly used in previous related lower bounds, as initiated by Lokshtanov et al. (SODA 2011). We present a new technique for a similar pattern propagation when only a black-box lower bound on the asymptotic rank of $\mathbf{M}_k$ is given; no stronger structural insights such as the existence of large permutation submatrices in $\mathbf{M}_k$ are needed. Given appropriate rank bounds, our technique yields lower bounds for counting Hamiltonian cycles (also modulo fixed primes $p$) parameterized by pathwidth. To apply this technique, we prove that the rank of $\mathbf{M}_k$ over the rationals is $4^k / \mathrm{poly}(k)$. We also show that the rank of $\mathbf{M}_k$ over $\mathbb{Z}_p$ is $Ω(1.97^k)$ for any prime $p\neq 2$ and even $Ω(2.15^k)$ for some primes. As a consequence, we obtain that Hamiltonian cycles cannot be counted in time $O^*((6-ε)^{\mathsf{pw}})$ for any $ε>0$ unless SETH fails. This bound is tight due to a $O^*(6^{\mathsf{pw}})$ time algorithm by Bodlaender et al. (ICALP 2013). Under SETH, we also obtain that Hamiltonian cycles cannot be counted modulo primes $p\neq 2$ in time $O^*(3.97^\mathsf{pw})$, indicating that the modulus can affect the complexity in intricate ways.