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cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting Algorithms with Polynomially-Improved Approximation Factors for the $2 \rightarrow q$ Norm, and Applications A computational phase transition for learning-to-sample from Ising models Covering vertices by sequential stars Fermi-Dirac machines as quantizations of neurons A Comprehensive Evaluation of Vertex Elimination Algorithms for Algorithmic Differentiation A Tight Bound on Localization of Electrical Flows Optimal Dimension-Free Sampling for Regularized Classification Reducing the Randomness in Partition Oracles for Bounded Degree Minor-Free Graphs Beyond the Half-Approximation: Fair and Efficient Online Class Matching Efficient Uniform Sampling of Surjections via their Profiles Tractable Maximization of Budgeted Phylogenetic Diversity on Networks Utilizing Node Scanwidth Fairness in Aggregation: Optimal Top-$k$ and Improved Full Ranking Learning-Augmented Online Scheduling with Parsimonious Preemption Entropy Equivalence Testing Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor Polynomial-Time Robust Multiclass Linear Classification under Gaussian Marginals Efficient Banzhaf-Based Data Valuation for $k$-Nearest Neighbors Classification Block-Sphere Vector Quantization An Approximation Algorithm for Graph Label Selection Iterative Chow Filtering for Learning with Distribution Shift Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries Fast and Compact Graph Cuts for the Boykov-Kolmogorov Algorithm A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Adaptive Multi-Round Allocation with Stochastic Arrivals The tractability landscape of diffusion alignment: regularization, rewards, and computational primitives Mistake-Bounded Language Generation Positional LSH: Binary Block Matrix Approximation for Attention with Linear Biases Learning-Augmented Scalable Linear Assignment Problem Optimization via Neural Dual Warm-Starts A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Curvature Beyond Positivity: Greedy Guarantees for Arbitrary Submodular Functions Convex Optimization with Nested Evolving Feasible Sets On the Complexity of the Matching Problem of Regular Expressions with Backreferences Simple KNN-Based Outlier Detection Achieves Robust Clustering Online Allocation with Unknown Shared Supply Equivalence of Coarse and Fine-Grained Models for Learning with Distribution Shift Accelerated Relax-and-Round for Concave Coverage Problems Contrastive Identification and Generation in the Limit Quantizing With Randomized Hadamard Transforms: Efficient Heuristic Now Proven Nearly Optimal Attention Coresets On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions Exact and Approximate Algorithms for Polytree Learning Provable Accuracy Collapse in Embedding-Based Representations under Dimensionality Mismatch New Bounds for Kernel Sums via Fast Spherical Embeddings Unlearning Offline Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits Matroid Algorithms Under Size-Sensitive Independence Oracles On the Learning Curves of Revenue Maximization Asymptotically Robust Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Preemptive FIFO Buffer Management Flashback: A Reversible Bilateral Run-Peeling Decomposition of Strings Incremental Strongly Connected Components with Predictions Characterizing Admissible Objective Functions for Hierarchical Clustering Well-Conditioned Oblivious Perturbations in Linear Space Mathematical Foundations for Peer-to-Peer Lattice Computation Graph Neural Network-Informed Predictive Flows for Faster Ford-Fulkerson and PAC-Learnability A weighted angle distance on strings Towards Universal Convergence of Backward Error in Linear System Solvers Constant-Factor Approximations for Doubly Constrained Fair k-Center, k-Median and k-Means Tight Bounds for Learning Polyhedra with a Margin Efficiency of Proportional Mechanisms in Online Auto-Bidding Advertising Skyline-First Traversal as a Control Mechanism for Multi-Criteria Graph Search Constant-Factor Approximation for the Uniform Decision Tree Limited Perfect Monotonical Surrogates constructed using low-cost recursive linkage discovery with guaranteed output Query Lower Bounds for Diffusion Sampling Early Pruning for Public Transport Routing Adapting Dijkstra for Buffers and Unlimited Transfers Exploiting Low-Rank Structure in Max-K-Cut Problems Partial Optimality in the Preordering Problem High-accuracy log-concave sampling with stochastic queries Learning to Approximate Uniform Facility Location via Graph Neural Networks Linear Regression with Unknown Truncation Beyond Gaussian Features Adaptive Power Iteration Method for Differentially Private PCA Finite and Corruption-Robust Regret Bounds in Online Inverse Linear Optimization under M-Convex Action Sets Learning Mixture Models via Efficient High-dimensional Sparse Fourier Transforms Variance Computation for Weighted Model Counting with Knowledge Compilation Approach Deterministic Coreset for Lp Subspace Online Algorithms for Repeated Optimal Stopping: Balancing Baseline Guarantees and Regret Learned Static Function Data Structures Optimal hypersurface decision trees A Perfectly Truthful Calibration Measure The Geometry of LLM Quantization: GPTQ as Babai's Nearest Plane Algorithm Best Agent Identification for General Game Playing A Faster Generalized Two-Stage Approximate Top-K Fast and Simple Densest Subgraph with Predictions Smoothed Analysis of Learning from Positive Samples Ineffectiveness for Search and Undecidability of PCSP Meta-Problems Sample-Efficient Optimization over Generative Priors via Coarse Learnability Efficient distributional regression trees learning algorithms for calibrated non-parametric probabilistic forecasts Testing Noise Assumptions of Learning Algorithms Testing Support Size More Efficiently Than Learning Histograms Sharper Bounds for Chebyshev Moment Matching, with Applications Expander Hierarchies for Normalized Cuts on Graphs Multilayer Correlation Clustering Efficient Parameter Estimation of Truncated Boolean Product Distributions Faster Hamiltonian Monte Carlo by Learning Leapfrog Scale: a self-calibrated randomized solution
Online Conformal Prediction with Efficiency Guarantees
Vaidehi Srinivas · 2025-07-03 · via cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

We study the problem of conformal prediction in a novel online framework that directly optimizes efficiency. In our problem, we are given a target miscoverage rate $α> 0$, and a time horizon $T$. On each day $t \le T$ an algorithm must output an interval $I_t \subseteq [0, 1]$, then a point $y_t \in [0, 1]$ is revealed. The goal of the algorithm is to achieve coverage, that is, $y_t \in I_t$ on (close to) a $(1 - α)$-fraction of days, while maintaining efficiency, that is, minimizing the average volume (length) of the intervals played. This problem is an online analogue to the problem of constructing efficient confidence intervals. We study this problem over arbitrary and exchangeable (random order) input sequences. For exchangeable sequences, we show that it is possible to construct intervals that achieve coverage $(1 - α) - o(1)$, while having length upper bounded by the best fixed interval that achieves coverage in hindsight. For arbitrary sequences however, we show that any algorithm that achieves a $μ$-approximation in average length compared to the best fixed interval achieving coverage in hindsight, must make a multiplicative factor more mistakes than $αT$, where the multiplicative factor depends on $μ$ and the aspect ratio of the problem. Our main algorithmic result is a matching algorithm that can recover all Pareto-optimal settings of $μ$ and number of mistakes. Furthermore, our algorithm is deterministic and therefore robust to an adaptive adversary. This gap between the exchangeable and arbitrary settings is in contrast to the classical online learning problem. In fact, we show that no single algorithm can simultaneously be Pareto-optimal for arbitrary sequences and optimal for exchangeable sequences. On the algorithmic side, we give an algorithm that achieves the near-optimal tradeoff between the two cases.