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cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting Algorithms with Polynomially-Improved Approximation Factors for the $2 \rightarrow q$ Norm, and Applications A computational phase transition for learning-to-sample from Ising models Covering vertices by sequential stars Fermi-Dirac machines as quantizations of neurons A Comprehensive Evaluation of Vertex Elimination Algorithms for Algorithmic Differentiation A Tight Bound on Localization of Electrical Flows Optimal Dimension-Free Sampling for Regularized Classification Reducing the Randomness in Partition Oracles for Bounded Degree Minor-Free Graphs Beyond the Half-Approximation: Fair and Efficient Online Class Matching Efficient Uniform Sampling of Surjections via their Profiles Tractable Maximization of Budgeted Phylogenetic Diversity on Networks Utilizing Node Scanwidth Fairness in Aggregation: Optimal Top-$k$ and Improved Full Ranking Learning-Augmented Online Scheduling with Parsimonious Preemption Entropy Equivalence Testing Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor Polynomial-Time Robust Multiclass Linear Classification under Gaussian Marginals Efficient Banzhaf-Based Data Valuation for $k$-Nearest Neighbors Classification Block-Sphere Vector Quantization An Approximation Algorithm for Graph Label Selection Iterative Chow Filtering for Learning with Distribution Shift Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries Fast and Compact Graph Cuts for the Boykov-Kolmogorov Algorithm A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling
Reconciling Individual Probability Forecasts
Aaron Roth, Alexander Tolbert, Scott Weinstein · 2022-09-05 · via cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

Individual probabilities refer to the probabilities of outcomes that are realized only once: the probability that it will rain tomorrow, the probability that Alice will die within the next 12 months, the probability that Bob will be arrested for a violent crime in the next 18 months, etc. Individual probabilities are fundamentally unknowable. Nevertheless, we show that two parties who agree on the data -- or on how to sample from a data distribution -- cannot agree to disagree on how to model individual probabilities. This is because any two models of individual probabilities that substantially disagree can together be used to empirically falsify and improve at least one of the two models. This can be efficiently iterated in a process of "reconciliation" that results in models that both parties agree are superior to the models they started with, and which themselves (almost) agree on the forecasts of individual probabilities (almost) everywhere. We conclude that although individual probabilities are unknowable, they are contestable via a computationally and data efficient process that must lead to agreement. Thus we cannot find ourselves in a situation in which we have two equally accurate and unimprovable models that disagree substantially in their predictions -- providing an answer to what is sometimes called the predictive or model multiplicity problem.