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PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting Algorithms with Polynomially-Improved Approximation Factors for the $2 \rightarrow q$ Norm, and Applications A computational phase transition for learning-to-sample from Ising models Covering vertices by sequential stars Fermi-Dirac machines as quantizations of neurons A Comprehensive Evaluation of Vertex Elimination Algorithms for Algorithmic Differentiation A Tight Bound on Localization of Electrical Flows Optimal Dimension-Free Sampling for Regularized Classification Reducing the Randomness in Partition Oracles for Bounded Degree Minor-Free Graphs Beyond the Half-Approximation: Fair and Efficient Online Class Matching Efficient Uniform Sampling of Surjections via their Profiles Tractable Maximization of Budgeted Phylogenetic Diversity on Networks Utilizing Node Scanwidth Fairness in Aggregation: Optimal Top-$k$ and Improved Full Ranking Learning-Augmented Online Scheduling with Parsimonious Preemption Entropy Equivalence Testing Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor Polynomial-Time Robust Multiclass Linear Classification under Gaussian Marginals Efficient Banzhaf-Based Data Valuation for $k$-Nearest Neighbors Classification Block-Sphere Vector Quantization An Approximation Algorithm for Graph Label Selection Iterative Chow Filtering for Learning with Distribution Shift Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries Fast and Compact Graph Cuts for the Boykov-Kolmogorov Algorithm A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling
Prophet Inequalities for I.I.D. Random Variables from an ...
José R. Correa, Paul Dütting, Felix Fischer, Kevin Schewior · 2018-11-15 · via cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

A central object in optimal stopping theory is the single-choice prophet inequality for independent, identically distributed random variables: Given a sequence of random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ drawn independently from a distribution $F$, the goal is to choose a stopping time $τ$ so as to maximize $α$ such that for all distributions $F$ we have $\mathbb{E}[X_τ] \geq α\cdot \mathbb{E}[\max_tX_t]$. What makes this problem challenging is that the decision whether $τ=t$ may only depend on the values of the random variables $X_1,\dots,X_t$ and on the distribution $F$. For quite some time the best known bound for the problem was $α\geq1-1/e\approx0.632$ [Hill and Kertz, 1982]. Only recently this bound was improved by Abolhassani et al. [2017], and a tight bound of $α\approx0.745$ was obtained by Correa et al. [2017]. The case where $F$ is unknown, such that the decision whether $τ=t$ may depend only on the values of the first $t$ random variables but not on $F$, is equally well motivated (e.g., [Azar et al., 2014]) but has received much less attention. A straightforward guarantee for this case of $α\geq1/e\approx0.368$ can be derived from the solution to the secretary problem. Our main result is that this bound is tight. Motivated by this impossibility result we investigate the case where the stopping time may additionally depend on a limited number of samples from~$F$. An extension of our main result shows that even with $o(n)$ samples $α\leq 1/e$, so that the interesting case is the one with $Ω(n)$ samples. Here we show that $n$ samples allow for a significant improvement over the secretary problem, while $O(n^2)$ samples are equivalent to knowledge of the distribution: specifically, with $n$ samples $α\geq1-1/e\approx0.632$ and $α\leq\ln(2)\approx0.693$, and with $O(n^2)$ samples $α\geq0.745-ε$ for any $ε>0$.