Griffin Wong shares his three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday night’s two-game Conference Semifinals slate, including props for Cade Cunningham, LeBron James, and Chet Holmgren.
For what could be the final time this season, there’s a two-game slate of NBA action as the second round of the playoffs continue.
In the opening game of the day, the Cleveland Cavaliers will hope to tie their series against the Detroit Pistons at two games apiece, with the winner going on to face the New York Knicks in the conference finals. Later, the Oklahoma City Thunder can secure a sweep against the Los Angeles Lakers, giving them a massive rest advantage for whichever team emerges from the San Antonio Spurs-Minnesota Timberwolves dogfight.
All four teams in action are plenty star-studded, so there are plenty of opportunities to bet on the stars tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook. Below, I’ll break down three of my favorite prop bet picks.
The Cavaliers have not done a very good job slowing down Cunningham this series; despite his shooting extremely inefficiently from two-point range (37.2%), he’s made a well-rounded impact, averaging 25.0 points and 9.0 assists per game, and he’s had two double-doubles (one of which was also a triple-double). Cunningham also had three double-doubles in the first round and fell either one rebound or one assist shy on two other occasions. He is the Pistons’ offense, as he leads all playoff participants (minimum 24 minutes per game) in usage rate and time of possession while ranking second in touches and potential assists. Cunningham is most likely to get there through points and assists (as four of his five playoff double-doubles have included), but he’s also averaging 10.5 rebound chances per game, so an anomalously poor shooting night by Cleveland could get him to 10 boards as well.
Frankly, the Cavaliers just don’t have a championship-caliber defense. They ranked just 18th in defensive rating after trading for James Harden during the regular season, and so far these playoffs, they rank 12th, ahead only teams that were either eliminated in the first round (Portland Trail Blazers, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns) or were just swept by the Knicks in fairly uncompetitive fashion (Philadelphia 76ers). Cleveland’s relatively deliberate pace has helped somewhat, but it has still allowed the fourth-most assists per game among the 16 playoff participants, and its struggles with turnovers could give Cunningham easy scoring or assisting opportunities in transition. The Cavaliers also haven’t done quite as good of a job protecting the rim as they did during the regular season, which could open up opportunities for one of the league’s best pick-and-roll duos during the regular season (Cunningham and the struggling Jalen Duren) to impart some damage.
James has turned back the clock these playoffs. In the first round, he manufactured an upset over the Houston Rockets by averaging 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game, and he’s produced similar scoring number so far this series, averaging 23.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game across the first three games, shooting 50% or better from the field in both Games 1 and 2. Oklahoma City has predominantly guarded James with Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso, and it hasn’t worked, as he’s torched the pair for a combined 32 points on 15-for-26 shooting. Unless Mark Daigneault adjusts by throwing a longer defender like Chet Holmgren on James, he should continue to feast. He’s gotten extremely high-quality looks, attempting 7.0 shots per game within five feet (tied for the most of any second-round participant with his teammate Deandre Ayton).
Meanwhile, the most successful aspect of the Lakers’ game plan this series has been their defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s had his worst average game score across a playoff series in his Thunder tenure, set a season high in turnovers and season low in points in Game 1, and tied his season low in assists in Game 2. James out-scored him in both Games 1 and 2, and while the soon-to-be two-time MVP finished with four more points than James in Game 3, it’s not like he was convincing (seven-for-20 shooting, including four-for-13 from inside the arc). Part of it is luck — he’s has just a 45.8% effective field goal percentage on shots with the nearest defender between four and six feet away — but he’s attempted 1.2 fewer shots at the rim this series than he averaged throughout the regular season, and he hasn’t gotten to the charity stripe quite as regularly as usual. Los Angeles doesn’t have many good defenders, but using Marcus Smart on the point of attack to pick him up early and sending Austin Reaves or Rui Hachimura is as effective a strategy as any.
One player the Lakers haven’t done such a great job stopping is Oklahoma City’s other All-Star, who’s been arguably the best player on the court this series, averaging an ultra-efficient 21.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game. He’s reached the 27+ P/R threshold in all three games this series after doing so in two of the four games during the first round against the Phoenix Suns, who have (on paper) a better defense than Los Angeles does. Holmgren was nine-for-10 from two-point range in Game 3 and is 18-for-19 (94.7%) within five feet so far this series. That could be bound for regression at some point, as Holmgren shot a more modest (but still elite) 74.3% from that range during the regular season, but his increase of 1.5 close-range attempts per game relative to the regular season is encouraging.
I’m not sold that the Lakers can do anything defensively but slow down Gilgeous-Alexander. They were the league’s third-worst rim-protecting team during the regular season, and while James’ increased defensive effort makes them a more formidable unit than they were during the regular season, they’re still relying on Ayton — who ranked in just the 40th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season — as their primary rim protector. Holmgren is eight-for-13 this series when guarded by Ayton…and somehow even more efficient in larger sample sizes against Reaves, James, and Hachimura, all of whom have such large responsibilities on offense that they can’t lock in defensively. Defensively, he’s mostly guarded Hachimura, a relatively limited athlete and far inferior rebounder, so he should have no problem skying for boards over him.
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