Zach Thompson details his top home run props for Saturday’s MLB slate, including bets for Angel Martinez, Colson Montgomery and Bryce Eldridge.
Rivalry Weekend continues on Saturday with all 30 teams on the Major League Baseball schedule across the afternoon and evening. Six games are on the schedule for the afternoon, with nine games under the lights. While all 15 games are regional rivalries, many of the same-city matchups are in the evening. The slate should be a good one for home run props with some favorable environments and matchups on the board. Let’s run down my top home run props from Saturday’s slate.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Be sure to jump in on the exciting Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, where the bonus bets for Saturday are up to $750,000 after no grand slams were hit on Thursday or Friday. I made my picks for the Grand Slam Payout contest, highlighting Ildemaro Vargas and Andrew Vaughn. In this post, we’ll take a look at three more of my favorite home run props from Angel Martinez, Colson Montgomery and Bryce Eldridge.
The Guardians and Reds met in the battle of the Buckeye State on Friday, with the Reds winning 7-6. On Saturday, the Reds will give Chris Paddack his first start since they signed him as a free agent earlier this week. In his six starts before being released by the Marlins, Paddack went 0-5 with a 7.63 ERA, 4.96 FIP and six homers allowed in 30 2/3 innings. According to Statcast, he gave up a 47.2% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate.
While the Guardians don’t have a ton of power in their lineup, the environment at Progressive Field should be conducive to home runs. The forecast is for warm temps with the wind blowing out. There could be some showers before the game, but the weather should clear.
The Guardians’ leading home run hitter this season is righty Angel Martinez, who still has very favorable odds in what should be a great matchup. Martinez homered twice earlier this week against the Angels, giving him seven homers on the year:
The switch-hitting Martinez has hit five of his homers this year against righties like Paddack and over half his homers at home at Progressive Field. Martinez has boosted both his hard-hit rate and his barrel rate this season, and he’s become a very solid contributor, usually near the top of the Cleveland batting order. He makes a nice long shot value play to start the day with on Saturday.
The White Sox have become one of the most homer-happy offenses in the majors this season, with three players at 10+ homers coming into their Saturday night matchup against the Cubs. The wind at Rate Field will be blowing in gently, but Montgomery has proven he can smash homers regardless of the conditions. He homered on Friday in the team’s loss to the Cubs, giving him 12 homers on the year.
Montgomery hit 21 homers in 71 games after his midseason call-up last year, and this year, he has 12 homers in 43 games while boosting his wOBA from a .355 wOBA to a .371 wOBA. He had a 14.4% barrel rate last year and has a 15.4% barrel rate so far this season.
Montgomery will take on Jameson Taillon on Saturday, who has the highest HR/9 of all the scheduled starting pitchers for the day. Taillon has allowed 11 homers in his eight games, with lefties hitting six of those 11 homers and posting a .338 wOBA. Taillon has given up a 13.3% barrel rate on the year, which could spell trouble for him against the slugging Sox from the South Side.
The Giants are at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, taking on Luis Severino on Saturday in the second game of their series against the A’s. While Severino has been solid at times over the last two seasons, he has really had a tough time at Sutter Health Park. Last year, he had a 6.02 ERA at home with just a 3.02 ERA on the road, and the trend has continued this year with a 4.91 ERA at home and a 3.56 ERA on the road. Severino gave up 10 of the 16 homers he allowed last year in Sacramento and four of the five homers against him this year have also happened at Sutter Health Park.
Lefties have done most of the damage against Severino this season with a .362 wOBA, and the Giants have a young lefty slugger with plenty of raw power. Bryce Eldridge hit 25 homers in the minors last year and five in his first 30 games at Triple-A this year before his promotion. He joined the Giants early in May and has been a regular against righties since then. Even though he is only 2-for-24 (.083), he has a 60% hard-hit rate and showed his power promise with his first MLB homer last weekend against the Pirates. He’s a nice value play at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park to close out the evening.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。