NHL picks today: Our prediction and pick for Game 3 of the Western Conference Final between the Golden Knights and the Avalanche.
The Golden Knights are up 2-0 in the Western Conference Final series and will host the Avalanche on Sunday night in Game 3, with puck drop set for 8:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Vegas is a +124 home underdog, and Colorado is a -148 road favorite on the Moneyline, with the game’s total set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down my top prediction and pick for Game 3 between the Golden Knights and the Avalanche.
The Golden Knights stole Games 1 and 2 in Colorado, and now the series will shift to Vegas for the next two games. Vegas is 4-2 at home this postseason, but it’s worth noting that the club went 0-1-1 against Colorado at home during the regular season. If there was going to be a team to slow down the Avalanche this postseason, it’d be the Golden Knights, thanks to their strong defensive play and ability to limit high-danger chances. Plus, the club has received elite goaltending from Carter Hart, who has won each of his last four starts, while sporting a 1.50 GAA and .956 SV%. Across those four starts, Hart has allowed two or fewer goals.
When you combine all of those factors, and then realize that Vegas is essentially keeping up with Colorado in terms of 5v5 xGoals per 60 and 5v5 xGoals against per 60 this postseason, the success starts to make sense. The club has received production across the board, with Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev each logging three points across the first two games of the series. Barbashev netted the game-winning goal and an empty-netter to secure the win for Vegas in Game 2. During the regular season, Vegas allowed the fourth-fewest high-danger chances against and the second-fewest xGoals against per 60.
Colorado finds itself in a 2-0 series hole for the first time since the 2020 Conference Semi-Finals against Dallas, where it lost in seven games. It took the club three periods to find the back of the net in Game 1, and then, it let a 1-0 lead slip away in Game 2. It also remains unclear whether or not the Avalanche will switch up the goaltending, as Scott Wedgewood has dropped back-to-back starts for the first time since mid-March. Still, having Mackenzie Blackwood, who sported a 2.51 GAA and .904 SV% during the regular season, as your backup option is quite the luxury.
The Avalanche remain a top 5v5 team, out-ranking the Golden Knights, in 5v5 goals per 60, 5v5 xGoals per 60 and 5v5 Corsi%. The team has technically out-chanced Vegas in this series, but it hasn’t received much puck luck thus far. Plus, the biggest factor for Colorado has been the absence of Cale Makar. Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar has had some interesting press conferences lately, where he alluded towards the fact that Makar could suit up and that the Golden Knights’ superstars have simply outperformed the Avalanche’s superstars. All in all, Colorado ranked first in both 5v5 goals per 60 and 5v5 goals against per 60 during the regular season, and it has a solid goaltending duo. The club just needs to convert on its chances.
Feel free to take the Avalanche on the 60-Min Line for better odds, but two of the three regular-season matchups between these teams went to overtime, and they’ve totaled a combined five overtime games this postseason. The public is backing Colorado heavily tonight, with 66% of the money and 62% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook lying with the Avalanche on the Moneyline (-148).
The Presidents’ Trophy curse may hit the Avalanche, but it is very hard to see a team of this caliber going down 3-0 in a playoff series. It sported the best regular-season road record at 29-7-5 and is 3-1 on the road this postseason with a +5 goal differential.
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