Cooper Albers previews Monday’s MLB series opener between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
American League East rivals kick off another three-game set Monday night, as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The Rays (26–13, 1st AL East) swept last week’s series at Tropicana Field. They’ve won 14 of their last 16 contests — most recently taking two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway Park — to claim the top spot in the AL. The Blue Jays (18–22, 3rd AL East) have dropped five of their last seven, though they kicked off their home stand with a series win over the Angels.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got a rematch between Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen (2–1, 2.95 ERA) taking on Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (2–2, 3.09 ERA). The pair of All-Star right-handers squared off on May 5, with the Rays notching a 4–3 victory.
First pitch is tabbed for 7:07 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rays are +109 underdogs, with the total set at O/U seven runs.
Tampa Bay’s surge atop the American League standings has largely been fueled by a small-ball approach — plus occasional flashes of serious pop. The Rays refuse to strike out and wreak havoc on the basepaths, while the likes of Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Jonathan Aranda all boast an OPS north of .820. There are signs of early overperformance — they rank 29th leaguewide in xwOBA — but the bats, at least for now, are hot as can be.
The pitching staff has also benefitted from some significant batted-ball luck; Tampa Bay’s MLB-best BABIP bolsters its top-five ERA. That’s not to say that the Rays can’t deal. Indeed, Monday’s starter, Drew Rasmussen, has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball — with the underlying metrics to back it up. The right-hander, 30, has shoved to the tune of a 2.95 ERA (3.17 xERA) with a 0.93 WHIP and 37 strikeouts through his first seven turns (36.2 IP) in 2026, limiting walks and loud contact with his nasty cutter.
Last time out, Rasmussen held the Blue Jays to three earned runs over six frames on seven hits (one home run) and a walk with five strikeouts.
The Blue Jays have struggled to shake off their World Series hangover. The Fall Classic runners-up, like Tampa Bay, continue to showcase their small-ball style with a lofty batting average and an MLB-best strikeout rate. The only problem? They just haven’t had the power to capitalize, ranking in MLB’s bottom ten for home runs (23rd) and total runs scored (25th). Toronto’s offense is largely driven by surging Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto and his 10 home runs, while franchise superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has only circled the bases twice.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff — particularly its bullpen — has suffered some tough breaks early on. While sitting 17th in ERA, the club ranks 26th in BABIP and ninth in xERA. Toronto aims to stem the tide Monday night, with ace Kevin Gausman commanding the hill. The veteran right-hander, 35, owns a 3.09 ERA (3.36 xERA) with a 0.99 WHIP and 43 strikeouts across his first eight starts, ranking in MLB’s 96th percentile in pitching run value behind a wicked fastball-splitter combo.
Gausman spun six innings of two-run ball on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts in his most recent start in Tampa Bay.
The Rays, arguably the hottest team in baseball, entering Monday’s series opener as an underdog offers tantalizing value. It was only one week ago that they swept the Blue Jays at the Trop, prevailing in the first Rasmussen-Gausman showdown. While Tampa Bay may run out of juice eventually, the club should ride its recent momentum to a road upset over its sputtering division rival.
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