Blake Krass takes you through his preview, predictions and best bets for the men’s and women’s side of the 2026 Madrid Open.
The Madrid Open is kicking off the clay season. After a couple of great hardcourt tournaments in America, the next great event in tennis will be held on clay in Madrid.
These are my Madrid Open best bets to target on DraftKings Sportsbook in the futures market.
Jannik Sinner is on an unstoppable run at the moment. Sinner got his season rolling with a title at Indian Wells. He followed that up by completing the Sunshine Double with another title in Miami. Sinner’s dominance carried over to clay, where he just won the Monte-Carlo Masters over Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz also sustained an injury in that tournament and will be out for the Madrid Open. Novak Djokovic is still dealing with an injury that has also kept him out of the field for another tournament. That makes Jannik Sinner the overwhelming favorite to stack another big title here in Madrid.
Sinner is the deserving favorite because he is simply different gravy at the moment. However, Sinner has never been a clay specialist. Roland Garros is the one Grand Slam that has alluded him so far in his young but accomplished career. In fact, Sinner has never even made the final here at the Madrid Open. The defending champion is Casper Ruud, who is listed at 50/1 to win this tournament.
One big variable is how the draw looks without Alcaraz and Djokovic. Alexander Zverev is the second-highest-ranked player in the field and is on the opposite side of the draw from Jannik Sinner. Other top contenders like Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils and Alexander Bublik would need to face Sinner before the final. That is why my best bet is on Alexander Zverev to win this tournament. Zverev has an incredibly smooth road to the Madrid Open final, which makes his price of +1000 hard to pass up.
Zverev has a very easy quarter of the bracket. His toughest potential opponent is Daniil Medvedev, who got double-bageled last time out on clay. Zverev should cruise into the semifinals. Even there, he will likely face a run-down opponent because that third quarter is by far the toughest in terms of top-to-bottom quality. Zverev has no excuse to miss the final here in Madrid. If he faces Jannik Sinner, he will be a big underdog. However, this path gives multiple chances for someone else to pull off the big upset on Zverev’s behalf before the final.
Aryna Sabalenka is once again the woman to beat. Sabalenka has been the top dog in women’s tennis for several years. However, here in Madrid, she has been fantastic over the past few years. Sabalenka is the defending champion and has won three of the past five Madrid Open titles. Sabalenka would not even be really tested until a potential semifinal matchup with Iga Swiatek. Swiatek has not been in great form as of late, and Sabalenka beat Swiatek on clay the last time they faced off. Sabalenka should cruise to the final here in Madrid, barring a major upset.
The main competition for Aryna Sabalenka will be the same as it has been all year, Elena Rybakina. Rybakina beat Sabalenka at the Australian Open and has played fantastic tennis all year. Rybakina is coming off a title win at the Stuttgart Open, a tournament where Sabalenka did not compete. That would be a tough test for Sabalenka as always, but Sabalenka has now won back-to-back meetings against Rybakina and should do so again if she sees her in the Madrid Open final. It’s hard for me to back anyone besides Aryna Sabalenka to win this tournament.
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