The Portland Trail Blazers will host the San Antonio Spurs for Game 3 tonight at 10:30 PM EST. The Trail Blazers will be without Damian Lillard, but there’s rumblings about him potentially returning later this postseason if the Blazers make a deep run. The Spurs will be without Jordan McLaughlin and have listed Victor Wembanyama as Questionable.

The Spurs are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 220.5 points.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs prediction, preview

San Antonio’s Game 3 outlook hinges heavily on Wembanyama’s availability. We saw the Spurs drop Game 2 after Wemby went down early in the game with a concussion. The Spurs’ defense suffers tremendously without Wemby, which says more about Wemby than it does the Spurs; he’s just that impactful on that end of the ball. Their loss also makes sense considering Wemby contributed 35 points in the Spurs’ Game 1 win, and without his impact in general, the Spurs could easily fall flat again in this one. If Wemby can’t go tonight, the burden of the offense will fall heavily on De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell. Regardless, the Spurs definitely hold the better season-long resume, going 62-20 with a 119.6 OFFRTG and 11.3 DEFRTG. The Spurs still managed a 12-6 record without Wemby during the regular season, but without his rim deterrence in a playoff atmosphere, I’m not sure whether Luke Kornet can even begin to replace his space denial. The Spurs did not score a field goal for the final 3:37 of Game 2 as Portland closed on an 11-2 run.

Portland has the cleanest path to flipping this series if Victor Wembanyama is unavailable or limited, because the Blazers’ best traits are precisely the ones that become more dangerous when the DPOY is gone. The Blazers were a middle-tier season-long profile at 42-40, with a 114.4 OFFRTG and 114.7 DEFRTG, but that undersells how much sharper they became late into the season: Portland’s 109.3 post-All-Star DEFRTG ranked third in the NBA, and the Game 2 win looked like that. Scoot Henderson punched through San Antonio for 31 points on 11/17 shooting and 5/9 from three. Jrue Holiday captained the offense with 16 points and nine assists. Robert Williams III gave Tiago Splitter 11 points and nine boards off the bench, and Donovan Clingan’s size helped Portland pile up 15 offensive rebounds and 11 blocks in a 106-103 win. We have to imagine that Clingan’s game will be way easier without Wemby in the way. Clingan had a strong regular season with 12.1 PPG and 11.6 RPG and led the NBA in ORPG at 4.5. He’ll try to give Portland second chances against a Spurs team that normally controls the interior.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs pick, best Bet

Best Bet: Trail Blazers +2.5 (-110)

Even if Wemby suits up, he likely won’t be 100% tonight. With this game heading back to Portland, they’ll carry their Game 2 momentum and try to grab a big win tonight. Their late-game execution against the Spurs looked sharp, and if Scoot Henderson continues playing like this, it won’t take much for them to cover the 2.5 spread.