Sunday Night Baseball lands at Citizens Bank Park with the Phillies 41-35 and the Mets 34-42. Philadelphia evened the series with Saturday’s 15-3 avalanche, a 17-hit, 10-extra-base night. The Phillies have scored 38 runs across five games since Monday and 47 across their last seven. Zack Wheeler gives them the run-prevention floor, but the offensive case starts with David Peterson. New York needs bulk from a left-hander coming off bullpen usage and months of loud traffic. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Phillies vs. Mets prediction, preview

Peterson enters 3-5 with a 5.91 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 64 innings. He has allowed 76 hits, 46 runs, 42 earned runs, 28 walks, and a .289 average. His Statcast page is uglier: .345 wOBA, .339 xwOBA, 89.8 mph EV, and 43.3% hard-hit contact. The sinker drives the trouble. It owns a .303 average, .434 slugging, .416 wOBA, .470 xwOBA, and 54.8% hard-hit rate. His four-seamer has allowed a .341 average, .545 slugging, and .412 wOBA. The changeup adds another leak, with a .345 average, .483 slugging, and .439 wOBA.

Philadelphia’s confirmed order gives that pitch mix a nasty road. Trea Turner leads into Schwarber, Harper, Bohm, Sosa, Marsh, Realmuto, Hill, and Stott. Schwarber brings 28 homers, 49 RBI, a .254/.368/.595 slash, .963 OPS, .408 wOBA, and 21.1% barrel rate. He also owns 52.1% hard-hit contact, 93.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 56.9% pull rate. Harper follows with 16 homers, 43 RBI, a .259/.367/.506 line, .873 OPS, .404 xwOBA, and 12.4% barrel rate. Marsh gives the middle another base path with a .315 average, .349 OBP, .486 slugging, and 45.5% hard-hit rate.

Saturday changed the emotional temperature, too. Schwarber hit three homers, including 456- and 457-foot shots during an eight-run third inning. Harper hit for the cycle in his first four at-bats and finished with three RBI. He entered 1-for-22 across seven games, switched to a heavier bat, and plans to keep it Sunday. Realmuto and Turner had multi-hit nights, and Realmuto added two doubles. The Phillies tied a season high with 10 extra-base hits. That kind of night can vanish quickly in baseball, but this matchup gives the carryover a sturdy statistical spine.

Mets vs. Phillies pick, best bet

The resistance deserves space. Philadelphia owns a .680 OPS against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Its last 10 against lefties sit at .238/.305/.381, with four homers and 36 strikeouts over 141 plate appearances. New York’s bullpen can also shorten the night. The Mets rank fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.37, with Luke Weaver at 2.25 and Huascar Brazobán at 1.91. Devin Williams has settled in after a rough start, and Brooks Raley gives them another competent lefty. Those relievers push me away from the bigger alternate team total, while 4.5 stays within reach.

Weather helps Philadelphia reach five. The forecast has 84 degrees near first pitch, with 81 degrees projected around 8 p.m. Citizens Bank Park already rewards loft, and Peterson’s sinker/fastball profile puts too many balls in damage spots. Wheeler also helps by keeping Philadelphia’s offense in attack mode, instead of chasing a bullpen game. The moneyline and first-five price ask for too much. The team total keeps the handicap on Peterson, park heat, and Philadelphia’s top-order pressure.

Best bet: Phillies team total over 4.5 runs at -105. Playable to -120.

Projected score: Phillies 6, Mets 3.

Best bet: Phillies TT o4.5 runs (-105) vs. Mets

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