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A deeper NBA means more opportunities for rivalries to write a new chapter earlier in the postseason, and so far, that’s exactly what’s happened these playoffs. LeBron James and Kevin Durant, two of their generation’s defining players, are currently playing in the West’s 4-5 matchup, and in the 3-6 affair, the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves are playing for the third time in four seasons.
The teams split their first two games in Denver, so these two games in Minnesota will be critical for both teams, since the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 series has gone on to win the series on more than 70% of prior occasions. Game 3 will tip off tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline) to win tonight’s contest, with the point total set to 233.5. The Timberwolves are +110 on the Moneyline.
There are lots of ways to get involved in the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, but in honor of the playoffs, DraftKings is running a 30% Same-Game Parlay Profit Boost on SGP’s of at least four legs with at least +300 odds, as long as it is placed before the start of the New York Knicks-Atlanta Hawks game at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, I’ve laid out my favorite qualifying SGP for you to consider.
At the end of the first quarter of Monday’s Game 2, Denver looked well on its way to a 2-0 series lead, taking a 39-25 lead after shooting 12-for-18 from the field. But then the Nuggets’ jumpers stopped falling and Minnesota’s defense tightened up, with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert mostly locking up three-time MVP Nikola Jokić down the stretch. In a series between two teams who have been separated by the narrowest of margins, the Timberwolves’ home-court advantage could prove the difference, and while both teams have a key player listed as questionable, I trust that Anthony Edwards’ knee is healthier than Aaron Gordon’s hamstring. An absent or hobbled Gordon would be horrible news for Denver, given that it was 10.2 points per 100 possessions worse without him during the regular season.
Murray scored exactly 30 points in each of the first two games of the series, but he got there in very different ways. In Game 1, he couldn’t buy a bucket, going without a made three-pointer for the first time since March 9, but in Game 2, he was lights-out, shooting six-for-14 from beyond the arc. All in all, Murray made at least three triples in 41 of his 75 games, so this is the safe leg of the parlay (-179). Minnesota had one of the league’s best three-point defenses during the regular season, allowing the fewest makes per game, but it’s given up 22.5 wide-open three-point tries per game so far this series and gotten fairly fortunate that the Nuggets have converted at just a 31.1% rate.
Gobert had a stellar offensive performance in Game 1, shooting eight-for-nine from the field and finishing with 17 points and 10 rebounds, his first playoff double-double since a monstrous 27-point, 24-rebound affair in the clinching Game 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round last season. In Game 2, he let his defense do the talking. The big Frenchman has always stepped up for games against Denver, though; in the teams’ two prior series, he recorded at least 21 P/R in nine of his 11 games, and he also got there in each of the final two regular season matchups. He’s shot three-for-five against Jokić while holding him to six-for-17 shooting, which is about as inefficient as the Serbian ever gets. More Jokić misses than usual means plenty of rebound chances.
This one sort of goes hand-in-hand with the previous two player prop legs. If Gobert is giving Jokić trouble as a scorer — as he has in the first two games — he could operate instead as a passer, and he was effective in Game 1, dishing out 11 assists. Additionally, if Murray makes at least three threes, that’ll mean at least one of them likely came on a Jokić assist, given that he’s averaged a whopping 35 passes per game to his pick-and-roll partner this series. Jokić has had at least 10 assists in four of the teams’ six matchups this season, including both the regular season and the playoffs, and he also had three double-digit-assist games in their prior two series.
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