Once again, it’s Cleveland versus Toronto. Just this time for slightly lower stakes.

A night after the Raptors took down the Cavaliers at Scotiabank Arena in the NBA Playoffs– with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez in attendance — the Blue Jays will welcome the Guardians just down the street at Rogers Centre. It’s been a rough start to the year for Toronto, sitting at 10-14 in the AL East, but the club did pick up its first series win in almost a month earlier this week in Los Angeles.

Can the Jays carry that momentum back home? Let’s preview this tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview

Will the real Gavin Williams please stand up?

As much as I want to anoint Williams as the next true ace of the Guardians, he’s not exactly been the most consistent pitcher in the world the past three seasons. Last year, the RHP shook off an underwhelming first half to post a 2.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Now, in 2026, Williams is in possession of a sterling 2.12 ERA over his first 29.2 innings of the season, yet the underlying statistics scream for regression. Don’t get me wrong, the 26-year-old’s 34.8% strikeout rate is amazing and can make up for a lot of flaws, but Williams’ 14.8% walk rate sticks out like a sore thumb, not to mention his 13.8% opponent barrel rate on the rare occasion that a ball is put into play. When Williams’ .167 opponent BABIP and 94.3% stand rate begin to normalize, I’d expect the former first-round pick to see his ERA settle right around his 3.92 FIP. If that fall from grace starts tonight in Toronto is another question.

The Blue Jays are beat up. There’s no one arguing the opposite. George Springer (toe) might be close to coming off the IL, but Toronto has missed his bat, along with the talent and power of Addison Barger (ankle), Alejandro Kirk (thumb) and Anthony Santander (shoulder). That last part is key. Power. The Jays are still hitting for average, ranking seventh in MLB at .257. The Jays are still making contact, owning the league’s lowest strikeout rate (18.1%). But the team has been lacking that big, game-changing swing. Toronto sits 26th in ISO (.123) and 27th in home runs (19). More concerningly, the team also ranks 29th in barrel rate (5.7%) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.341). Putting the ball in play is nice, in theory, yet it doesn’t mean much if there’s no results.

Finally, let’s talk a little Max Scherzer. Through four starts, the future first-ballot Hall of Fame pitcher has mustered an ugly 7.16 ERA and a 6.21 FIP. However, Scherzer hasn’t been awful every time he’s taken the mound in 2026. In fact, after tossing six innings of two-run ball last weekend against the Diamondbacks, the 41-year-old has thrown a quality start in half of his four appearances this season. Still, I think it’s safe to say Scherzer is on the other side of the hill at this point in his career. In his 101.1 regular season innings with the Jays, Scherzer has conceded a whopping 2.04 opponent long balls per nine. Red flags don’t come much redder than that. On the bright side, with one punchout on Friday evening, Scherzer will become just the 11th man in MLB history to record 3,500 strikeouts. That’s fun.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet

Best Bet: Guardians ML (-126)

This feels like a fair price for a road favorite. Even with some regression on the horizon, Williams is a much better pitcher in 2026 than Scherzer. Add in the Jays offensive struggles, and the Guardians have the clear advantage.

Strong Lean: Gavin Williams Over 1.5 Walks (-126)

Williams has hit this over in four of his five starts this season. Among qualified arms, his 14.8% walk rate is the highest mark in MLB.