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Two of the best teams in baseball battle it out in Atlanta again today when the Braves host the Milwaukee Brewers for the second leg of a three-game series. Yesterday, there were plenty of hits in the opener as the home team took a 3-2 win to kick things off. Today’s matchup could prove particularly interesting with Chris Sale taking the mound for Atlanta against an elite lineup as well, so fans are in for an excellent outing this afternoon.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Nationals vs. Rays matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Brew Crew remain atop the NL Central at 45-28, but after dropping back-to-back outings, they’ve hit a slight bump in the road. However, the run differential remains +115 and they’re rolling through most opponents, so there’s no reason to panic. That’s especially true with Milwaukee averaging 5.27 runs a night, third most of any MLB club. The Brewers’ .735 OPS sits ninth in baseball on a slash line of .255/.341/.395 with a BABIP of .308 that’s good for second. They may be in some trouble against a lefty like Sale since pitchers of his handedness generally see more success against this lineup — they’re slashing .245/.329/.361 with a big drop in OPS to .690, and only 15 homers have come in the split. Power isn’t a strong suit of the Brewers with just 67 home runs on the year with a .140 ISO, but the small-ball approach does work. Plus, they lead the MLB in BB/K ratio at 0.53 with an 11.0% BB% and a 20.7% K%.
Young LHP Kyle Harrison draws the start for Milwaukee today. In 13 games, he’s gone 8-1 with an ERA of 2.47, plus a 1.10 WHIP and 80 strikeouts across 65.2 IP. His K% of 30.0% is elite and his hard-hit rate of 31.5% also sits in the 88th percentile. The Brewers’ bullpen has the eighth-best ERA at 3.49 with a 1.29 WHIP and 15.0% K-BB%.
The Braves paced the MLB in winning percentage for much of the year, but they’re now 4-6 over their last 10 games while dealing with the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to the IL. The good news is that they’re still 47-27 and have the talent to keep a +101 run differential trending in a positive direction. Atlanta produces 4.99 runs per game and are sixth in scoring, and the club’s .741 OPS ranks sixth as well. They’re slashing .254/.319/.422 on the year, with just a slight downtick to .250/.317/.416 for a .733 OPS against lefties like they’ll face tonight. However, the Braves have a .291 BABIP and a .168 ISO with 98 home runs in total, so power is a strong suit and they can put the ball into the gap. The Braves also have an 8.0% BB% that isn’t super inspiring, but a 21.0% K% is on the low end.
As mentioned in the intro, star LHP Chris Sale gets the start as he continues to defy Father Time. He has an 8-5 record in 13 starts with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 92 Ks across just 78.1 IP. Sale’s Baseball Savant profile is quite impressive, boasting an elite chase rate with a 28.8% K% and a 6.3% BB%. He’s also grading out in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity. Behind him is the best bullpen in baseball with a 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 16.2% K-BB%.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as -142 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Brewers are underdogs at +118 odds to win outright with the run total set at seven.
The run total for today is set quite low, but I still like the under on it. Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball even at age 37 and keeps doing his thing as always, though he was tagged for a loss in back-to-back outings after giving up five earned runs in those games. He’s backed by an elite bullpen, which doesn’t help the outlook for Milwaukee’s bats. The Brewers also have a very effective pitcher out there in Harrison, who’s having the best season of his young career right now. Were it not for a game in which he gave up eight earned runs two starts ago, his numbers would look even more impressive. Likewise, the bullpen behind him has been quite good as well. Yeah, these offenses are excellent, but Acuna Jr.’s absence has also been a downer for Atlanta’s scoring output. All signs point to the under this afternoon.
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