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There are ways to win pretty in the NBA, and there are ways to win ugly. In the playoffs, knowing how to win in both ways is extremely important, and in their first round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Toronto Raptors have done both. In Game 3, the Raptors shot 60.9% from three-point range (albeit on low volume) to drop 126 points on 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, but in Game 4, they won with just 93 points after shooting only 32.0% from the field.
The fact that Toronto has been inconsistent but still effective is perhaps emblematic of its star player. Scottie Barnes is a defensive stud and interior playmaking hub with an extremely hit-or-miss jumper, but his accolades (a Rookie of the Year, two All-Star appearances, and a fifth-place finish in Defensive Player of the Year voting) speak for themselves.
The Raptors are 4.5-point underdogs for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 219.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around Barnes.
Backing a well-rounded player like Barnes to record a double-double allows for more variation in his offensive aggressiveness, since he’s the rare player capable of double-doubles with points and assists, points and rebounds, and even assists and rebounds. This series alone, he’s already had a pair of point-assist double-doubles, scoring 33 points and dishing out 11 dimes in Game 3 and recording 17 points and 11 assists in Game 5, and he came within one board of a point-rebound double-double in Game 4. He’s one of just eight players (minimum 60 games played in the regular season) this season to average at least 18 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game in both the regular season and playoffs.
Cleveland hasn’t played very well defensively this series, ranking fifth-to-last in defensive rating, and while Barnes’ scoring almost doesn’t matter — he reached the 10-point threshold in 75 of his 80 regular season games — that could also help his teammates score. In fact, the Cavaliers have allowed the most assists per game among the 16 playoff participants, and they also rank just 13th in total rebounding percentage. Barnes doesn’t have the easiest individual matchup, but he’s done a good job finding right pass when Mobley smothers him, dishing out nine assists when guarded by him. Additionally, Barnes has mostly guarded James Harden, who’s an excellent rebounder for his size but is three inches shorter and less athletic. Barnes’ rebounding totals are trending upwards as the series progresses, and he had at least 10 boards in all three of the teams’ regular season matchups.
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