While there are technically still six matches left to play in the Premier League season, it effectively all comes down to this: a match between Manchester City and Arsenal with the league title hanging in the balance. Entering Sunday’s match, the Gunners hold a six-point lead in the title race, but the Sky Blues have a game in hand. Arsenal is still a -160 favorite to eventually lift the trophy at DraftKings Sportsbook, but Manchester City (+115) isn’t far behind.

What will likely be the title-deciding match will kick off at 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) on Sunday at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

The Sky Blues are -115 favorites to to take the critical three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Gunners are +330. A draw is available at +260.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction, pick

Arsenal has had a comfortable lead for most of the season, and it had been in strong form prior to the most recent international break, winning six times and drawing twice in eight Premier League matches. But the Gunners lost, 2-1, to 11th-place Bournemouth, and their 1-0 aggregate win over Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League was far from convincing, making them look vulnerable in the title fight. Meanwhile, Manchester City has had six wins and two draws in the Premier League since its most recent loss, and it also beat Arsenal in the EFL Cup final. Plus, the Sky Blues don’t have any European competition to worry about, since they were eliminated in the Champions League Round of 16 to Real Madrid. For their struggles in the European competition, they’ve been dominant domestically; they haven’t lost to an English team not based in Manchester since November.

City’s talent speaks for itself. Three different players got on the score-sheet against Chelsea, and none of them was Erling Haaland, who looks likely to win the Premier League Golden Boot for the third time. Five different players have at least five league goals, with Phil Foden scoring seven and Nico O’Reilly, Tijjani Reijnders, and Antoine Semenyo netting five each. As a result, the Sky Blues have had the best attack in England, scoring 63 goals and managing 165 shots on target. They’ve also produced the third-most touches in the box, scored the most goals from fast-breaks, and completed passes at the highest rate. Defensively, they’ve been solid, too, allowing the second-fewest goals and expected goals while winning aerial duels at the highest rate and ground duels at the sixth-highest. Their high press has produced the second-most high turnovers (the most ending in a shot), and they’ve played disciplined football, committing the second-fewest fouls. Gianluigi Donnarumma ranks third in the Premier League in save percentage.

That doesn’t mean Man City is guaranteed to win, though, as the Gunners stack up in every facet of the game. They’ve more or less solved their striker woes by bringing in Viktor Gyökeres, who overcame a slow start to bang home 12 Premier League goals so far, and Eberechi Eze has been a solid addition as well. Arsenal’s attack has basically been as effective as the Sky Blues’, as it has scored just one fewer goal and produced nearly as effective chances. The Gunners have also finished clinically, which could be a problem for a City defense that has has allowed shots in the box at the highest rate. Defensively, Arsenal has been by far England’s best team, allowing 11 fewer expected goals’ worth of chances than any other team, as well as the lowest shot-in-box percentage, and it’s won both ground and aerial duels at top-five rates. It’s also forced the fourth-most high turnovers and played clean football, earning the fewest yellow cards and not conceding a single penalty. The Gunners have also given up only one goal on a fast-break.

The EFL Cup final wasn’t exactly a convincing display for Arsenal, but the stats weren’t all that lopsided, as each team attempted 10 total shots and the Gunners got more on target, only to be thwarted by Man City backup James Trafford. Arsenal has the bigger injury crisis, with Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Jurriën Timber, Noni Madueke, and Mikel Merino all unlikely to play, and its set piece dominance won’t be as important against the Sky Blues, who rarely allow such situations. City has also dropped just one home match in the Premier League this season, while the Gunners have lost two on the road. All signs point towards the trailing team.

In a vacuum, the Sky Blues should be expected to win, but these odds are just too aggressive. Anything can happen in football, and these teams are as evenly-matched as any pair can be; even with all of Arsenal’s injuries, it’s the deepest team in England. -110 odds for the Gunners to take at least one point are too friendly to pass up.

Best Bet: Arsenal or Tie (-110)