An intriguing Lightweight contest on tonight’s UFC Fight Night Prelims is between Francis Marshall vs. Lucas Brennan. The American Top Team product, Marshall, is 2-1 in his past three contests, while Brennan is making his UFC debut. Brennan competed in Bellator from 2019 to 2023 and went 9-0 in the promotion.

Check out my best bet for Francis Marshall vs. Lucas Brennan at UFC Vegas 116.

Over 2.5 Rounds (-120)

Since his tenure in Bellator, Brennan is 2-2 but has gone 2-0 with two first-round submissions in 2025. Brennan’s record stands at 11-2 while Marshall is 9-3. Since earning a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2022, Marshall has gone 3-3 in the promotion.

Brennan is one inch taller (5’10” vs. 5’9″), but Marshall makes up for it with a one-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 71″). This is an interesting matchup as both fighters are high-level submission artists, with Brennan having eight and Marshall having five in his career.

In this fight, Marshall is a -535 favorite with Brennan being the underdog at +400 on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight is -130 to not go the distance and +100 to go the full scheduled 15 minutes. Two of Marshall’s last three fights have gone over 2.5 rounds, while three of Brennan’s last five have entered the third round. With that being the case, I’m taking this fight over at 2.5 rounds, which is -120.