The Aces are hosting the Wings on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 178.5 points.

Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.

Aces vs. Wings Preview

The Aces and Wings have been two of the WNBA’s best teams this season. The defending champion Aces are 12-5 and rank sixth in net rating, while the Wings are 11-6 and rank fourth in net rating. Thursday’s matchup will already be the third time these clubs have faced each other this season and Dallas won the first two matchups by eight and 30 points, respectively. That 30-point blowout just came on June 15 and the Wings’ defense smothered the Aces for a season-low 66 points.

A’ja Wilson scored just 18 points — the reigning MVP leads the league with 25.1 PPG — and Jewell Loyd added 21 points, but no other player for Las Vegas scored more than nine points. The Aces lead the league in offensive rating this season, so this was a strange performance that isn’t going to happen again, but the Wings’ defense deserves a ton of credit for that victory, and for how they have been playing lately.

Since inserting No. 1 pick Azzi Fudd into the starting lineup on May 28 — which was the Wings’ first matchup of the season vs. the Aces — Dallas ranks third in defensive rating. The club ranks just sixth in offensive rating during this time, but with it’s defense thriving, the Wings are 7-3 during this stretch.

The Wings have a promising, up-and-coming trio of Paige Bueckers, Fudd and Jessica Sheppard, and this squad looks like it could make some serious noise this postseason. Dallas has won four of it’s last five and the club is 2-0 vs. the Aces this season, so why are they the underdog tonight? Well, both of those wins over Las Vegas came in Dallas and the Wings have been a much different team on the road this season. Dallas is 6-2 at home, but 5-4 on the road.

In the Wings last game on Monday, they faced a 3-15 Storm team that ranks second-to-last in net rating, but with this game in Seattle, the Wings only won by two points in an overtime thriller. Dallas is a young team, so them having issues on the road isn’t a surprise, and it will be interesting to see how they respond to the defending champion Aces on their home floor tonight.

That being said, just like the Wings on the road, the Aces have had issues at home, with just a 4-3 record, compared to a 8-2 record on the road, with those two losses coming at the hands of Dallas. The Aces having a mediocre home record does feel fluky, though. This experienced group of Wilson, Jackie Young and company should be ready to get revenge vs. this Wings’ team that has had their number this season.

Aces vs. Wings Pick, Best Bet

This is a tricky matchup. Do the Wings just have the Aces figured out? Does it matter that tonight’s matchup is in Las Vegas? Or, will the Aces show their experience and expose the Wings for being a young team that is flawed when on the road?

After seeing a bad Storm team push the Wings to the limit Monday, I think their youth shows again tonight and the Aces finally get a win in this matchup. However, my favorite bet for this matchup is under 178.5 points. Both these teams are 9-8 for the under this season and this should be a playoff like setting between two of the WNBA’s best.

Best Bet: Under 178.5 Points (-110)