Fenway has made Boston’s strangest series look like a fever dream with box-score backing. The Red Sox are 35-46, average 4.0 runs, own 71 HR, and score only 3.5 runs per home game. The Yankees are 48-34, average 4.9 runs, own 121 HR, carry a 3.34 ERA, and hold opponents to .227. That gap keeps New York dangerous, even after Boston won 6-3, 6-1, and 4-1. The Yankees have scored five runs, gone 14-for-94, lost six of eight, and slipped into a division tie. Boston’s lefty trio has allowed three runs with 19 K over 19 1/3 innings this series. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, preview

Gray gives Boston the cleanest route to another controlled game. He enters 9-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 66 K, 20 BB, and 9 HR across 76 1/3 innings. His 7.8 K/9 is his lowest since 2016, while his 1.1 HR/9 keeps one-swing danger alive. The run prevention still travels: 7-0 across nine starts since the IL return, 11 K over seven one-run innings at Coors, and three runs allowed across 6 1/3 innings against New York on June 5. His 3.80 xERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 48.0% ground-ball rate, and 12.5% K-BB rate frame him as stable, not untouchable. Boston needs six-plus innings, weak contact, and a direct bridge into leverage.

Rodón also keeps the under alive because his damage profile has narrowed. He is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 46 K, 22 BB, and only 3 HR across 41 1/3 innings. That gives him 10.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and just 0.7 HR/9, with a 3.49 FIP beneath the ERA. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in every start and is 4-0 across his last five. Boston’s path comes through patience, because his 12.7% walk rate and 59.0% first-pitch strike rate invite traffic. The Sox hit lefties better than righties, with a .270/.338/.428 split, .766 OPS, 18 HR, 39 doubles, five triples, 103 runs, 59 BB, and 152 K in 652 AB.

Boston’s lineup can pressure Rodón, but the price on a team total still asks plenty. Contreras brings a .281/.377/.527 line, 17 HR, 50 RBI, and the main right-handed mistake-punishment swing. Rafaela adds .284/.333/.442 contact, 18 doubles, speed, and a .297/.308/.516 last-15 push. Abreu’s .269/.333/.439 profile brings 16 doubles and 10 HR, while Durbin’s six HR and recent Yankee-series damage add useful lower-order resistance. Yoshida’s homer matters because Boston has searched all year for Fenway lift. Romy would help against Rodón if activated, but his status keeps the lower half volatile. The Sox have enough lanes for 3-4 runs, not enough certainty to chase 4.5 or taxed 3.5.

Yankees vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

The Yankees’ counter lives in the names still standing. Rice owns a .276/.367/.573 line, 22 HR, 53 RBI, 40 BB, and a .940 OPS, even with a 2-for-23 rut. Goldschmidt carries .291/.353/.552, 14 HR, 40 RBI, and enough veteran barrel discipline to punish Gray’s misses. Bellinger sits at .265/.365/.452 with 16 doubles, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 49 BB, and 10 steals. Chisholm has seven HR in his last 22 games, and Domínguez/Jones add switch/lefty length. Judge, Stanton, Grisham, and McMahon being out lowers the top-end scoring band. It does not make the Yankees safe to fade by multiple runs.

The bullpen layer pushes this toward under 8 rather than full-game Boston confidence. Chapman owns a 1.90 ERA and 2.09 FIP, but he has thrown 23 and 20 pitches in two recent outings. Whitlock owns a 2.70 ERA and 2.99 FIP, yet he has worked twice in three days. Slaten sits at 6.23/4.43, Watson at 4.84/4.91, and Weissert at 3.82/4.34, so Boston needs Gray length. New York owns the stronger late-game cushion, with a 0.49 bullpen ERA over the last seven days. The weather stays mild, around 70 degrees at first pitch with no rain issue.

Best bet: under 8 at -114.

Projected score: Red Sox 4, Yankees 3.

Best bet: Red Sox vs. Yankees u8.0 total runs (-115)

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