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Last season, the New York Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns era got off to a slightly rocky start. Towns was brilliant in the regular season, finishing on the All-NBA Third Team, and his surface-level stats in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers looked strong. However, his sometimes lackadaisical defense proved to be an issue in a tightly-fought Conference Finals.
Despite his more muted surface-level stats these playoffs (17.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game), Towns has undoubtedly had the best playoff run of his career, leading all postseason participants in offensive and total win shares, win shares per 48 minutes, offensive and defensive box plus/minus, total box plus/minus, and VORP so far.
Towns will look to continue his hot start to the 2026 playoffs tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET, when the Knicks open the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers advanced over the Detroit Pistons on Sunday night, while New York has had a full additional week to rest after closing out the Philadelphia 76ers on May 10.
The Knicks are 6.5-point favorites for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 217.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the Big Apple’s favorite big man.
Between his final season with the Minnesota Timberwolves and his first two seasons in New York, Towns hasn’t really been utilized much as a passer. So far these playoffs, though, Mike Brown has unlocked him as a jumbo playmaker, as his 6.6 dimes per game lead the team, and he’s already recorded three 10-plus-assist games, nearly matching his total for his entire career before this season. Six assists (+117) feels relatively safe, given that he’s reached that number in each of the last seven games, but he’s had at least seven in five of those, so that represents better value. His production should be relatively sustainable, given that he’s averaged 4.2 more passes and 4.2 more potential assists per game across the last seven games than he did during the regular season. It’s clearly working — the Knicks have a ridiculous plus-27.5 net rating in that span — so if anything, Brown should be compelled to place even more of a playmaking burden on his big man.
Cleveland represents a good defensive matchup for Towns. Though the Cavaliers have more reliable bigs than either the Atlanta Hawks or the 76ers, whom Towns has punished, they’ve posted by far the worst defensive rating among the teams still alive in the playoffs and had a below-average defense in the second half of the regular season after trading for James Harden. Cleveland has also allowed the fifth-most assists per game among the 16 playoff participants, right in between Atlanta and Philadelphia. During the regular season, the Cavaliers predominantly guarded Towns with 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, whose prowess against him one-on-one could incentivize him to pass. A plurality of Towns’ passes have gone to Jalen Brunson, and while Brunson was bottled up by Dean Wade during the regular season, Wade has posted a stop percentage 1.0 percentage points below the median so far these playoffs.
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