Zach Thompson details his best player prop bets for Sunday’s NBA Game 4 playoff matchup between the Lakers and Rockets.
The final game of Sunday’s huge NBA schedule is Game 4 of the series between the Lakers and the Rockets. The Lakers are looking to close out a surprising first-round sweep of the Rockets, while Houston is trying to force a Game 5 back in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Let’s get ready for Game 4 with a few of the top player prop bets to consider from this Lakers-Rockets matchup.
The Rockets are 4.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total at O/U 207.5 points. In the futures market, the Lakers are -1400 to win the series and +2800 to win the title.
The injury report for Game 4 has two big names on it. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant (ankle) remains questionable after missing the first three games in the series, but he seems unlikely to play after reports that he is dealing with a bone bruise that would sideline him 2 to 3 weeks in the season. For the Lakers, Austin Reaves (oblique) is also questionable after missing the whole series so far. Keep a close eye on the status of these two stars, but let’s take a look at some Lakers-Rockets props that make sense regardless of their status.
While the series has been a disappointment for the young Rockets, Thompson has been very productive. He had a monster performance in Game 3 with 26 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists while playing 48 minutes in the team’s overtime loss.
Thompson finished with 41 PRA (points, rebounds and assists) in that contest, and he has gone over this prop line in five of his nine games in April. He had 31 PRA in Game 1 and 30 PRA in Game 2, coming up just short of this prop line in those two tough losses.
Whether Durant pushes through his injury and plays or not, Thompson will need to step up and play huge minutes and carry plenty of the workload. He averaged 31.5 PRA per game this season, which jumped to 34.7 PRA in his starts without Durant available.
He’ll get all the minutes he can handle in this potential elimination game, and he has a good chance to find a way to contribute in one or all of these categories on Sunday night.
Smart has been one of the key Lakers to step up in the first three games of this series with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves out. Smart only averaged 15.8 PRA in his 61 regular-season games, but in his three games in this series, he produced 25, 34 and 35 PRA, clearing this prop line by a wide margin.
In Game 2, Smart had 25 points and seven assists, and he was even better with 21 points and 10 assists in a double-double in Game 3.
Even if Reaves returns, Smart’s impressive play will likely earn him enough playing time to hit the over on this prop. Reaves will likely be eased back into the rotation when he does return, and Smart’s work at point guard has been outstanding in the last two games. The veteran is a proven playoff contributor, and this is an attainable total for him in Game 4.
If Durant does end up surprisingly playing, Sengun will have a smaller role, but even without KD, Sengun has only gone over this prop in one of the first three games in this series.
In Game 1, Sengun had 19 points in 36 minutes, and in Game 2, he had 20 points in 35 minutes. He took 19 and 20 shots in those games, but in Game 3, he took a massive 27 shot attempts on his way to 33 points in 47 minutes in overtime.
He definitely has the ability to go over this prop line, but with Durant potentially back in the mix, it seems much more likely that he will stay under this total. The Lakers will key in on Sengun if Durant is out, and they could limit him again as they did in Game 1 and Game 2.
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) for Game 4, adding in the over on LeBron’s steals boosts the odds up to a solid +1300 for the four Lakers-Rockets bets in this post.
This is a high-risk pick but sweetens the SGP all the way to 13:1. James had three steals in Game 3 while logging 45 minutes in overtime. He had one steal in Game 2, but he had multiple thefts in each of his previous four games. As the veteran tries to put the series away and get some rest before the next round, look for more vintage “Playoff LeBron,” which leads to great production on both ends of the floor.
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