Red Sox southpaw Ranger Suarez, Mariners righty Bryan Woo and Phillies vet Aaron Nola are among the aces set to take the mound Wednesday. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to the three starting pitchers’ strikeout prop bets.
There are a handful of aces taking the mound Wednesday, from Red Sox lefty Ranger Suárez to Mariners All-Star Bryan Woo and Phillies veteran Aaron Nola. Can Suárez keep his stellar June rolling? Which version of Woo will the Mariners get out in Pittsburgh? Will Nola put his recent home run woes behind him? Here is our full breakdown of where we think each starting pitcher will wind up in the strikeout column.
Suárez has tossed at least five strikeouts in each of his last four starts. He is averaging 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings over that stretch. In his first 10 outings of the season, however, Suárez had only reached five strikeouts three times. Beyond the strikeout column, Suárez owns a 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in June. He has faced between 23 and 25 batters in five straight appearances, so his workload has been consistent whether he has allowed five earned runs or zero. Suárez took the mound in Colorado last season and struck out six in 6.2 scoreless frames. This year’s Rockies are fresh off a 12-strikeout performance against the Red Sox – 11 of which came against starter Sonny Gray – and rank sixth in MLB in strikeouts per game.
Through 15 starts this season, Woo has gone for six-plus strikeouts nine times. He has achieved the feat in three of his last four and six of his last eight. Woo’s 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings this season are exactly in line with his career average, so the production he’s been contributing as of late is pretty reliable. Woo has notably allowed six or more earned runs on three occasions this season. When giving up three-plus earned runs, Woo is just 1-for-6 when it comes to reaching six strikeouts. Going against the Pirates should work in Woo’s favor, though, considering they average the third-most strikeouts per game in the big leagues. Pittsburgh is also averaging the ninth-fewest runs per game in MLB since June 5.
Nola has made it to at least five punchouts in 10 of his 15 starts this season, which is a solid rate in spite of his 5.71 ERA. When the 33-year-old lasts at least 5.0 innings, he is 8-for-9 in hitting this bet. The issue for Nola is that he has been giving up a lot of loud contact as of late. He is up to five starts – including each of his last two – in which he has allowed multiple home runs. Washington can take advantage of that, given the fact that they rank No. 3 in OPS and No. 6 in home runs per game. The good news for Nola is that he still struck out six in his last time out, not to mention his eight strikeouts against just 19 batters earlier this month. The Nationals’ OPS is also 55 points lower versus righties than lefties, plus they rank No. 19 in runs per game since last Wednesday. On top of that, Washington just struck out 17 times on Tuesday – 13 times against Philadelphia starter Jesús Luzardo. Since Luzardo’s 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings entering Tuesday is only a tick above Nola’s 9.2, so expected five strikeouts shouldn’t be too much to ask.
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