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There’s no team in the MLB better than the Atlanta Braves at the moment, who are 25-11 and have scored more runs than any other franchise. Tonight, they head into the second game of a series against the Seattle Mariners looking to shake off last night’s loss. What can we expect to see in the late slate on Tuesday night?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this evening’s Braves vs. Mariners matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Braves hold the best record in baseball right now at 25-11, rattling off seven wins in their last 10 games. The loss last night hurt, but it’s just a slight bump in the road given their recent form. Even with Ronald Acuna Jr. out of the lineup due to injury, this is still a loaded roster capable of elite production. Atlanta averages an MLB-best 5.81 runs per game and has the best OPS in baseball at .808, slashing a ridiculous .275/.341/.468. The Braves also have an impressive .193 ISO with 54 homers, second most, but that hasn’t compromised their approach by any means — they have an 0.43 BB/K ratio but are third lowest in K%. Their arms are similarly impressive with the third-best ERA at 3.25 and a 1.19 WHIP that ranks fourth in the sport. The staff is also 13th in K-BB%, sitting 10th in K% at 23.1%.
Tonight, Atlanta starts RHP Bryce Elder, who’s looked great through his first seven starts with a 1.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s also struck out 36 hitters across his 43 innings, going 3-1 as well.
The first month of the Mariners’ campaign was a rocky one and they’re just 17-19, but in a weak AL West, the division is wide open. They’ve gone 6-4 across their last 10 games and are generally better at home, averaging 4.43 runs per game at T-Mobile Park compared to 3.67 on the road and 4.11 on the year. Seattle’s OPS of .699 ranks 22nd and a slash line of .230/.321/.378 isn’t the most impressive, but Julio Rodriguez has been heating up at the plate lately, which is a solid sign. The M’s have a respectable .148 ISO with 40 homers, tied for seventh most. An 0.44 BB/K ratio is around average, but they do have the seventh-worst K%. As for the pitchers, they’ve generally performed better than the offense. Seattle’s ERA sits eighth at 3.73 with a 1.25 WHIP, and a 15.5% K-BB% comes in at seventh overall.
For the Mariners tonight, RHP George Kirby gets the nod after going 4-2 across his first seven outings. He’s logged a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, punching out 34 hitters in 45 innings of work. In particular, he’s excelled at forcing ground balls with a 93rd-percentile grade in GB%.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as -136 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Braves come in at +113 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 7.5 combined runs between these sides.
Both pitchers have been quite good to start the season and neither one is a strikeout monster by any means. That’s not enough reason for me to ignore the over tonight though, especially after the series started with a 5-4 win for Seattle last night. The Braves are clearly one of the MLB’s elite teams at the dish this year and are straight-up mashing the baseball, and while the Mariners have struggled far more than expected, their OPS increased to .742 at home with a .333 OBP and .409 SLG at their own ballpark. That counts for something, as does an improved .747 OPS over the last 14 days. Seattle is slowly improving, and while Elder has been good this season, his last two years of MLB ball have been subpar with an ERA of 5.30 or worse along with a 1.39 WHIP or higher. He’s not invulnerable, so I like the over between all the factors in this one.
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