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It has been an awesome Rivalry Weekend for Major League Baseball, and a few more games remain to wrap up the busy weekend. After most of the schedule starts at 1:00 or 2:00 p.m. ET, there are three games in the later window, including the Sunday Night Baseball game from Seattle to close out the weekend. Let’s look at the three matchups starting after 4:00 p.m. ET and find a few home run props that make sense to play to close out the weekend with a blast.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Earlier today, I highlighted two players from the early slate as picks for the Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, where the bonus bets for Sunday are up to $1,000,00 after no grand slams were hit in the last three days. I spotlighted Angel Martinez and Samuel Basallo as two options I like, and in this post, we’ll look at three more of my favorite home run props from Nick Kurtz, Mike Trout and Josh Naylor.
The Athletics and Giants have split the first two games of their series at Sutter Health Park, and on Sunday, Kurtz will look to help his team secure the series win in Sacramento. Even though his odds are lower than I normally target in my home run props, he brings enough power potential to be a solid play even at only 2:1. Kurtz only had one homer in his first 19 games, but he has seven blasts in his last 25 games, including three homers in his last four games. Kurtz didn’t homer Saturday, but had connected in three straight before that. On the season, Kurtz has a 59.6% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate with seven of his eight homers against righties.
Kurtz will take on righty Adrian Houser on Sunday, who has allowed eight homers in his eight starts this season, including six to left-handed hitters. Lefties have a .507 wOBA and .359 ISO against Houser with a 49.4% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate.
Since lefties tee off on Houser, Kurtz has a good chance to jump back on the home run train this Sunday.
Trout has had a remarkable bounce-back season for the Angels this year. He only hit .232 last year with 26 homers and a .343 wOBA. This year, he’s hitting .238 but has 11 homers and a .389 wOBA. Trout has a 51.4% hard-hit rate and a 22.4% barrel rate. He hasn’t had a hard-hit rate over 50% since 2023, and he’s never had a barrel rate over 20%.
On Sunday, he and the Angels are finishing their three-game set against the Dodgers from the other side of L.A. He will take on Roki Sasaki on Sunday, who continues to struggle this year as a starter. The 24-year-old righty has allowed nine homers in his seven starts this year, with four of those homers by righties in 54 at-bats against Sasaki. Righties have a .296 ISO against Sasaki this season, with a 12.5% barrel rate against him.
The Mariners have dropped each of their first two games to the Padres and will look to avoid being swept at home on Sunday Night Baseball. The Padres will give the ball to Lucas Giolito for his first start of the season, after signing the 31-year-old veteran after the start of the season. Giolito has made four minor league starts, compiling a 4.76 ERA and 4.13 FIP and allowing one homer in 1st innings. Last year, he gave up 17 homers in 26 starts for the Red Sox.
In his career, Josh Naylor is 4-for-14 against Giolito with a home run. He hasn’t homered in his last eight games, but he has three homers while hitting .321 over his last 20 games. In those 20 games, he has a 50% hard-hit rate and a .376 wOBA. All five of his homers have come against righties, and the big lefty has a chance to put a charge in one Sunday night to welcome Giolito back to the majors.
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