Sunday’s early HR board has the right kind of shape: young power, plus-money prices and a few pitchers whose contact profiles leave more danger than their ERAs suggest. This card is about swing quality and price forgiveness. Sal Stewart gets Great American Ball Park with loud rookie contact. Junior Caminero brings middle-order bat speed into Yankee Stadium. Luke Raley has the noisiest barrel profile of the group, even in a tougher park. The through-line is simple: impact contact at playable numbers, with each matchup offering a clear path for one mistake pitch to leave the yard.

Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to swat one out.

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Sal Stewart to hit a home run (+325)

Sal Stewart gets a loud right-handed power lane in Cincinnati, batting third for a Reds order that has Blake Dunn and Elly De La Cruz setting the table ahead of him and Spencer Steer/Eugenio Suárez waiting behind him. The return trip is earned: Stewart was written up on May 18 and delivered, taking Brad Keller deep in the seventh inning for a 101.3 mph, 361-foot solo shot on an 85.3 mph sweeper, his 11th homer of the season. That swing fits the larger profile. He already has 12 homers, and his recent contact quality keeps carrying the argument: .372 wOBA, .389 xwOBA, 90.9 mph average exit velocity, 42.1% hard-hit rate, 36.2% sweet-spot rate and a 17.1% barrel rate. Two completed Reds games after that May 18 homer, Stewart authored the first four-hit game of his career with a double, three runs and a 441-foot homer at 109.7 mph. Matthew Liberatore gives the matchup a clean power runway: 4.70 ERA, 91.4 mph average exit velocity allowed, 44.2% hard-hit rate allowed, .363 wOBA allowed, .369 xwOBA allowed and a 9.8% barrel rate allowed. Great American Ball Park does not need much help when a hitter with Stewart’s loft meets that kind of contact profile.

Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+520)

Junior Caminero is the Tampa Bay bat with the loudest one-swing case, and the lineup slot gives the whole thing a cleaner runway. He is hitting third for a Rays club that has made life miserable for the Yankees already, taking the first four meetings of the season while carrying the kind of 22-of-26 heater that turns every mistake pitch into a traffic problem. Caminero has earned the aggressive look: 13 homers, a .377 wOBA, .380 xwOBA, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 46.7% hard-hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate. That is plenty of thump for Yankee Stadium, even with cooler Bronx air taking some easy carry off the table. Ryan Weathers has pitched better than a target arm, sitting 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 61 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP, but the contact underneath the line is still giving hitters room. He has allowed an 89.6 mph average exit velocity, 43.1% hard-hit rate, .321 xwOBA and 11.6% barrel rate. Caminero does not need the inning to get loud around him. One elevated heater, one cutter that drifts into his bat path, and the number starts looking too generous.

Luke Raley to hit a home run (+590)

Luke Raley is worth the longshot because swing quality still jumps off the page, and Saturday’s game gave a decent little reminder even inside a miserable Seattle offensive day. The Mariners were shut out in Kansas City, yet Raley had three of their four hits and added a double while the rest of the order barely touched Stephen Kolek. That kind of box-score isolation matters when it matches the larger contact profile: .379 wOBA, .391 xwOBA, 93.1 mph average exit velocity, 55.8% hard-hit rate, 41.6% sweet-spot rate and a massive 22.1% barrel rate. He is already living in the impact band this market is supposed to chase. Seth Lugo can absolutely make hitters look uncomfortable with command, pace and shape, but his 2026 contact profile has opened the door more than his name value suggests: .323 wOBA allowed, .348 xwOBA allowed, 90.7 mph average exit velocity allowed, 41.4% hard-hit rate allowed, 42.0% sweet-spot rate allowed and a 9.8% barrel rate allowed. Kauffman Stadium does trim the cheap ones. Raley’s barrel rate is the reason this does not need to be cheap.