Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s WNBA matchup between the Fever and Mercury.
The Fever is hosting the Mercury on Monday. Indiana is a 7.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 177.5 points
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Monday is the first of a back-to-back between the Fever and the Mercury in Indiana. The Fever are coming off consecutive losses to the Dream, but Indiana had won four in a row before this. The Fever are 9-7 and rank seventh in net rating this season, with Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston leading the way.
Clark continues to be one of the top scorers in the WNBA, ranking third in scoring with a career-high 21.1 points per game. She has been cooking lately, posting at least 21 points in five straight contests. Mitchell and Boston are also having career seasons, averaging 20.8 and 17.2 points per night, respectively.
The Fever have the makings of a title contender, but they struggle to protect the ball, ranking third in turnover rate. Their defense can also be vulnerable at times, as we just saw in back-to-back games vs. the Dream, when Atlanta scored 108 and 113 points.
As for the Mercury, they have taken a major step backward after losing to the Aces in last season’s WNBA Finals. Phoenix is just 5-12, and the club ranks 11th in net rating. The Mercury have been subpar on both sides of the ball, ranking 11th in offensive and defensive rating, as this squad severely misses Satou Sabally.
Kahleah Copper leads Phoenix with 19.1 points per game, and Alyssa Thomas has been steady with 13.8 points, 8.4 assists and 6.8 rebounds per game — but these two can only do so much. Rookie Jovana Nogic had some great moments in the beginning of the season, including a 27-point showing vs. the Sky, but the Mercury moved her to the bench last month. In the past few days, Nogic’s contract has been temporarily suspended because she is away from the team for personal reasons, per Mercury HC Nate Tibbetts.
The Mercury are coming off an easy 93-73 win over the Storm on Saturday, but Seattle has been putrid recently, as this marked its 10th consecutive loss, and Phoenix had dropped four in a row going into this matchup. The Mercury won this game with Nogic and Monique Akoa Makani (hamstring) out of the lineup, which will be the case again on Monday. Lexi Held got the spot start and stepped up with 11 points on 5-of-12 shooting.
Held ranks fourth on Phoenix in plus/minus this season, and she should draw another start on Monday, but the Fever are a much tougher matchup than the Storm, and this game is in Indiana, where the Fever are 6-3 this season. Conversely, the Mercury is just 2-4 on the road.
After dropping two in a row to the Dream, this is a great get-right spot for the Fever vs. the Mercury, and Indiana should notch a home win Monday night.
The Fever are just 7-9 ATS this season, though, so backing them to cover this 7.5-point spread does feel a little risky, and I am more inclined to back this game for over its total of 177.5 points. Indiana leads the league in pace, and the club is 6-3 for the over this season.
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