A Lightweight contest between Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki is taking place on the Prelims of UFC 328. Dawson is coming off a loss to Manuel Torres, while Rebecki has lost two straight fights. The UFC 328 Prelims begin at 7:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Check out my best bet below for Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328.

Grant Dawson Moneyline (-148)

From 2015 to 2023, Rebecki won 16 consecutive fights with 13 finishes. Since then, he has gone 1-3 in the UFC with losses to Diego Ferreira, Chris Duncan, and Ludovit Klein. His last victory came at UFC 308 in October 2024 against Myktybek Orolbai.

Before his last fight, Dawson won three straight bouts. Dawson last beat Diego Ferreira at UFC 311 in January 2025. Dawson has a six-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 66″) while being three inches taller (5’10” vs. 5’7″). Rebecki averages two more significant strikes per minute, but Dawson is more accurate on the feet.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dawson is a -148 favorite with Rebecki being a +124 underdog in this contest. This bout has an over/under of 2.5 rounds with the over being -145. This fight is -120 to go the distance and -110 to end early. In his career, Dawson has done an excellent job of bouncing back following a loss. After suffering a knockout loss, I expect Dawson to be more defensively sound while implementing his game plan early in this contest.