Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers.
An afternoon matinee is on tap this evening in Arlington. The Twins (35-40), despite their sub-.500 record, are still in the mix for a postseason spot in the American League. On Thursday, pitcher Joe Ryan will hope to lead Minnesota to an impressive series sweep on the road. Standing in his way will be the Rangers (35-38), still a factor in the wide-open AL West. Can Texas salvage a win in front of their home crowd?
The Twins are favorites (-126) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Minnesota and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As previously mentioned, the headliner in this matchup is Joe Ryan. The former All-Star has continued to pitch well in 2026. Over 82.1 innings of work (15 starts), he’s notched a 3.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 92 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). Granted, the right-hander has been more effective at home (2.85 ERA) than on the road (3.60 ERA). If Ryan has any notable weakness, it’s giving up elevated contact. He sits at the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate (43.4%) and ground ball rate (36.1%). However, the spacious dimensions of Globe Life Field should keep the ball inside the park tonight.
It’s not as if this is the most fearsome opponent at the plate. The Rangers have been a below-average offense all season. To be fair, injuries have played a role. The recent return of Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford should give this group a boost going forward. Still, this Rangers lineup leaves a lot to be desired. The team is scoring 3.52 runs per game at home, third-worst in the majors. Texas has put up 37 runs over its previous ten contests. That’s tied with Houston for the fifth-lowest mark in baseball during that stretch. To make matters worse, this club ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitching (.693).
To counter a terrific arm in Ryan, Texas will hand the ball to Jack Leiter. After a decent start to the season, he’s been terrible in recent weeks. Over his last five starts, the 26-year-old is on the hook for a 5.81 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The right-hander has struggled when it comes to giving up hard contact (8.6 H/9) and base on balls (9.9 BB%). At this point, there’s no telling which version of Leiter will show up from game to game. A 4.58 xERA and .252 xBA suggests that this is who he is: an inconsistent, but occasionally stellar, starting pitcher.
It might come as a shock to most casual fans, but the Twins can swing the bat. They’ve notched baseball’s seventh-most runs scored (354) while recording the 11th-best slugging percentage (.404). Leading the charge is face of the franchise Byron Buxton. When healthy, few players in the league match his all-around prowess. At the plate, the two-time All-Star is slashing .275/.336/.601 with 23 home runs. He’s gotten some support recently from Kody Clemens. The infielder is hitting .286 with five homers and ten RBIs over his last ten appearances. Minnesota gets the ball in the air, ranking 13th in fly ball rate (27.0%) and fourth in line drive rate (24.8%).
This was always going to be an uphill battle for Texas against an elite arm in Ryan. That’s especially true when you factor in how bad the Rangers have been hitting at home. In comparison, Buxton and this Twins lineup have been above-average in most offensive categories. With their ace on the mound, Minnesota has the edge this afternoon.
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