The Cardinals and Padres play the first game of their four-game series on Thursday, May 7.

San Diego is a -169 moneyline favorite, while St. Louis is +139 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Cardinals vs. Padres game.

Cardinals vs. Padres prediction, preview

Michael King is in his third season with the Padres, which is also his third full season as a starting pitcher. He makes his eighth start of 2026 tonight against the Cardinals, but is coming off a poor performance in his last outing. King allowed four earned runs, three walks and seven hits across six innings against the White Sox.

Although it’s a weak outing, King has a 2.95 ERA this year, and it’s his fourth season with a sub-3.00 ERA in his career. His ability to pitch at least five innings while limiting damage has helped San Diego earn the second best record in the NL West.

Unlike the Padres, the Cardinals weren’t expected to compete in 2026. The team is filled with young players, but they’re playing well thus far. Jordan Walker’s breakout is legit and players such as Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera are playing key roles on the second best team in the NL Central.

Matthew Liberatore is starting for St. Louis in Thursday’s series opener. He has a 4.50 ERA, which is on par to his previous season averages. The left-hander is out-matched by King, and he’s only struck out 23 batters in 36.0 innings. If he meets his averages, the St. Louis offense will need to provide plenty of run support.

Cardinals vs. Padres Pick, Best Bet

St. Louis has been red hot, winning seven of its last nine games. San Diego, on the other hand, lost five of six before most recently winning three of four. If the more recent version of the Padres hosts this game, it should be a one-sided matchup. King’s last start was disappointing, but he’s been so consistent in his career. It’s unlikely he implodes again.

Meanwhile, Liberatore has always been a 4-5 ERA pitcher. He’s had solid starts this year, but he’s far from consistent. The Cardinals will need to score plenty, and I’m not sure they can do so against King and the San Diego bullpen.

Best Bet: San Diego Padres ML (-169)