The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Denver Nuggets tonight in an elimination game at 9:30 PM EST. The Timberwolves are leading this series 3-2. The Timberwolves will be without Donte Divincenzo and Anthony Edwards. They’ve made Bones Hyland available but have listed Ayo Dosunmu as questionable. The Nuggets will be without Peyton Watson still and have made Aaron Gordon questionable.

The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 225.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction, preview

Denver has forced the series back into a reasonable dispute, but Game 6 is obviously pivotal. Its margin for error has been tied directly to ball movement, Aaron Gordon’s availability, and whether Minnesota can keep Nikola Jokic from reaching double-digit assist numbers again. The Nuggets won Game 1, 116-105, behind Jamal Murray’s 30 points and Jokic’s 25-13-11 triple-double, then spent the next three games getting dragged into Minnesota’s preferred version of the series: physical and ugly, which is uncomfortable for Denver’s half-court offense, and specifically Jokic. Game 3 was a tough watch. The Nuggets shot just 34.1% from the field and 8/32 from three while Jokic went 7/26 and Murray shot 5/17 under heavy Jaden McDaniels pressure. Thankfully, the Nuggets fared much better in Game 5, with Jokic finishing with 27 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds. Denver handed out 35 assists, Spencer Jones supplied 20 points with Gordon out, and the Nuggets forced 25 Minnesota turnovers in a 125-113 win. Gordon’s questionable tag is big: if he plays through left calf tightness, Denver gets its best physical forward defender for Julius Randle/Jaden McDaniels and a natural cutter and screener who’s had years to develop unbelievable chemistry with Jokic. If Gordon sits, then Jones, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun have to absorb more of that frontcourt burden.

Minnesota’s series has changed even more dramatically because its Game 6 offense may barely resemble the group that built the 3-1 lead. The Wolves took Game 2 119-114, after rallying from 19 down behind Anthony Edwards’ 30 points and Julius Randle’s 24. They then cracked Denver in Game 3 with defense: McDaniels’ relentless defensive pressure wore down Jamal Murray while Rudy Gobert’s size behind the play prevented easy Denver offense. Ayo Dosunmu’s 25 off the bench gave Minnesota a 113-96 win and he looked even better in Game 4, with an enormous 43 points on 13/17 shooting in a 112-96 win. But alas, Minnesota cannot have nice things, as Edwards left with a left knee injury and Donte DiVincenzo suffered a right Achilles injury. Both are out for Game 6, and Dosunmu, their Game 5 hero, is now questionable with right calf soreness. It’s a disaster. Without Edwards and DiVincenzo, Minnesota needs Dosunmu to attack defenses and prevent Randle from having to manufacture inefficient late-clock possessions. Bones Hyland is cleared to play despite knee soreness, which helps the guard depth. If Dosunmu is limited, the Wolves’ cleanest path to victory is narrower: Randle as a playmaking forward, McDaniels cutting on offense while applying defenseive pressure, and Gobert doing his thing.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick, best Bet

Best Bet: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-258)

Given Minnesota’s injury report, it’s tough to not go with the Denver Moneyline tonight, even though they’re not playing at home. Without Edwards’ and DiVincenzo’s offensive contributions, it will take a small miracle (maybe another Ayo Dosunmu night) for them to eek out a win, especially if Aaron Gordon can play. Denver showed in Game 5 that Jokic can absolutely still punish the Wolves as a playmaker. Denver has the overall better spacing in this series and the Wolves will be without their best player.