How lucky are we to get a Commissioner’s Cup Final preview a week before the main event? The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces are our marquee matchup on Tuesday night, and it’s a beautiful blend of past and future in this rivalry. It’s a rematch of the 2023 Cup Final, when the Liberty beat the Aces by 19 points, and the 2023 WNBA Finals, in which the Aces got their get-back with a 3-1 series win. On the eve of another historic matchup between these two elite teams, let’s dig into this one.

Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Aces are 1.5-point home favorites with -130 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Liberty upset is priced at +110 with the game total set at O/U 174.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty-Aces game.

Liberty vs. Aces Preview

It’s a strange time for the New York Liberty. At 11-6 with a top-five net rating, they’re in a great spot to contend. But it hasn’t been easy working Sabrina Ionescu back from her injury. They’re 2-3 overall with their All-Star point guard and have dropped two in a row to worse teams. In those losses to the Sparks and Mystics, Ionescu has 11 points on 5-of-16 shooting, six turnovers to five assists, and a -14 on/off rating. Not what you want to see from a player working through a back injury.

Meanwhile, the Aces are rolling. Winners of eight of its last nine games, Las Vegas is creeping up on the Lynx for the top overall seed in the league, and will surely expect to bring home another trophy next week. A’ja Wilson continues to add to her GOAT resume with another MVP-level season, but the rest of the roster has to be shouted out. Point god Chelsea Gray is handing out 7.3 assists a night while shooting 43% from three. Jackie Young has overcome a shaky shooting start and is putting up 15/4/7 on the year. NaLyssa Smith understands the assignment defensively and is shooting a scorching 70% from the field. Chennedy Carter brought a serious X-factor to the bench before running into injury troubles. It’s a deep roster with top-end talent that few can match.

So much of this matchup comes down to A’ja Wilson vs. Jonquel Jones. Arguably the best two-way forwards in the game, Jonquel has produced some strong results on Wilson in the past. Satou Sabally is an interesting element here as another forward with serious size to bother Wilson in rotation. And you’d better believe that the Aces will try to use Ionescu as a pressure point on both ends. With all the backcourt scoring at their disposal, there’s nowhere for the Liberty’s star guard to hide defensively and she will have to compete on that end. She may be who Becky Hammon chooses to leave open offensively as well, or they can run her off the line and dare her to drive. You can be sure the Aces have no qualms about attacking a player working through an injury.

As usual, Breanna Stewart is the X-factor here. Like clockwork, she’s averaging near 20 points and 10 rebounds, with over two combined stocks per night. Her rotations will be awfully important to their defensive game plan, and when the offense bogs down, Stewie’s ability to create off the bounce will help to un-stick them. It wouldn’t be the first or last time the Aces were confounded by the two-time MVP.

Now we know what to make of these two teams. Who is going to take home the win?

Liberty vs. Aces Pick, Best Bet

With only a 1.5 point spread on this game, our oddsmakers are more or less implying that the two teams are even. When fully healthy, I’d be inclined to agree with them, but Ionescu’s injury struggles are a 100-pound anchor around their neck in recent play. Going 2-2 in a four-game stretch against teams below .500 doesn’t inspire confidence, and they have no choice but to soldier along until Ionescu gets healthy. The Aces are not the kind of team you want to face when you’re on a bit of a cold spell. The Aces will take this one and set the tone for next week’s Commissioner’s Cup showdown.

Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -1.5 (-115)