Major League Baseball has a split slate, with seven afternoon games and seven games under the lights this Saturday, while the Royals and Cardinals are the only teams not in action. It should be another great day for home run props with Coors Field and Sutter Health Park highlighting a hitter-friendly slate with plenty of favorable weather spots to attack. Looking through the environments, matchups, current form and odds, my top home run props from Saturday are JJ Bleday, Ryan O’Hearn and Mookie Betts.

It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!

Best MLB home run bets today

Best MLB home run bets today	Team	Why I like the pick
JJ Bleday	Reds	Very homer-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium set up nicely for Bleday, who has 13 homers this season, including 6 in his last 19 games with a 44.6% hard-hit rate. Will Warren has been solid overall but has allowed 6 HR in 7 home starts.
Ryan O’Hearn	Pirates	Coors Field boost for O’Hearn in a great spot against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 17.8% barrel rate against him by left-handed hitters. O’Hearn has six homers in his last 21 games.
Mookie Betts	Dodgers	Mookie has gone 10-for-25 (.400) in his last six games with a pair of homers, a 40% hard-hit rate and .320 ISO. He’ll face Trevor Rogers, who has given up nine homers (eight to RHB) in 13 starts.

As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.

Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.

Top MLB home run props today: Analysis

JJ Bleday to hit a home run (+323)

Bleday has been a huge power pick-up for the Reds this season, and he’ll be in a great matchup in the early game against Will Warren and the Yankees in very homer-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium. Bleday has 13 homers on the year, including six dingers in his last 19 games. Over that span, Bleday has a 44.6% hard-hit rate, a .382 wOBA and a .310 ISO. He homered on Monday against the Mets and will look to keep mashing at Yankee Stadium, where the wind will be blowing out.

Yankees starter Will Warren has been solid overall, but he has allowed six HR in seven home starts. He has also given up five homers to lefties like Bleday, who have a .310 wOBA against him and a 35.3% hard-hit rate. The splits and the wind will be in his favor, so this should be a good spot to back Bleday this afternoon.

Ryan O’Hearn to hit a home run (+420)

In another very home run-friendly spot, the Pirates are at Coors Field against Tomoyuki Sugano. The Pirates are even at 38-38 after losing the series opener, but they’ll look to get back in the win column on Saturday. O’Hearn has 11 homers so far in his first season with the Buccos, hitting his 11th homer of the year with this oppo taco on Wednesday.

Six of his 11 homers this season have come in his last 21 games, and he is hitting .291 with a .266 ISO over that span. He has been very good this year against righties, hitting .296 with seven of his homers and a .373 wOBA on that side of the splits.

O’Hearn will be on the strong side of his splits against Sugano, who has allowed nine homers to lefties, who have a .291 ISO and a 17.8% barrel rate against him on the season. With Sugano giving up so much hard contact and a great spot at Coors Field, O’Hearn is a very solid play, who still brings good value at +420. His teammate Brandon Lowe (+224) is also a good play, while lefty Tyler Callihan (+527) is a sneak play who is an even longer shot than O’Hearn.

Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+394)

Betts has been limited to 41 games this season for the Dodgers, but he is starting to lock in at the plate and look like vintage Mookie. He homered again on Friday to boost his season total to eight dingers.

Betts has gone 10-for-25 (.400) in his last six games with a pair of homers. He has a 40% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate with a .488 wOBA and .320 ISO over that short span.

He’ll take on Trevor Rogers in the second game of the Orioles’ stop in Los Angeles. Rogers is 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA on the road this season and has served up nine homers in 13 starts. Righties have hit eight of those nine homers against the lefty Rogers and have a .363 wOBA and 40.7% hard-hit rate against him on the season.

Betts is 1-for-3 against Rogers in their past meetings, but the veteran has started to return to form, so he makes a good play to go yard again on Saturday.